Pew: Clinton +9

[HillOfANight]

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2016-campaign-strong-interest-widespread-dissatisfaction/
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/751116317911027713





Trump leads among white, non-Hispanic voters (51%-42%), while Clinton has an overwhelming advantage among African Americans (91%-7%). Clinton also holds a wide, 66%-24% advantage among Hispanic voters.

A majority of registered voters (56%) say the phrase “personally qualified to be president” better describes Clinton than Trump; just 30% say the phrase better describes Trump. Far more voters also say the phrase “would use good judgment in a crisis” better describes Clinton (53%) than Trump (36%).

[HillOfANight]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/751116747898585088

Nate noticed that in 2008 and 2012, Pew's June numbers were predictive of the final margin.

2008 June Pew: Obama 48 McCain 40 (final margin 7.2)

2012 June Pew: Obama 50 Romney 46 (final margin 3.9)

[HillOfANight]

Considering Hillary's abysmal position with white men, if she's at 42% with whites she could very well be winning with white women (probably with a plurality though).

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/2-voter-general-election-preferences/
It says R+22 white men, D+8 white women. She gets 30% WM to his 52%, and she gets 44% WW to his 36%.

[HillOfANight]

The only close polls this cycle have been the autodial robopolls (PPP, Rasmussen).

[HillOfANight]

They have 9 pages of analysis, and as the new york times has noted, their June polls have been very predictive of the last 2 elections.

[HillOfANight]

Interesting, if you go to table on page 3, Clinton has consolidated Dem party much more than Obama did at this point in 08.

Consistent with findings 2 weeks ago by the ABC/Washington Post poll.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239661.msg5134393
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/26/donald-trumps-bad-month-just-got-worse-because-bernie-backers-just-rallied-to-clinton/

Trump support among Bernie supporters
May: 20%
June: 8%

McCain support among Clinton supporters
June: 20%
July: 22%
August: 18%
September: 19%
October: 14%

[HillOfANight]

They have plenty of welfare money, and Trump's more liberal than the GOP on social security, more protectionist on trade, more racist.

[HillOfANight]

The average lead in the RCP average is Clinton +4.7. This poll is 9. It's off significantly. The relevant polling time this poll was taken is mid-to-late June. They released the results over a week later. That is when Clinton was surging a bit from the wrap up of the nomination.

The polls concluded in the past week have the race in the 3-5 point range. They have shown a consistent narrowing.

This polling was roughly in the 5-8 point Clinton ballpark at the time period that this Pew poll was taken. It is not representative of where the race is right now. That bounce has faded.

Ignoring for now the fact that FiveThirtyEight's polls-only forecast, which takes into account the relative biases, absolute errors, and recentness of all the national polls, suggests that the current state of the race is a Clinton +5.5 margin, even if we go with your +4.7 number, that still leaves Pew off by 4.3 and Rasmussen off by 6.7. So your statement earlier that they're in the same class of wrong seems shaky at best. If we go with the more realistic 5.5 current state, then Pew is off by 3.5 and Rasmussen is off by 7.5.

As for the "polls conducted in the last week" point, there are three on RCP, and two of them are clear outliers. How do you get a "polling average" from one poll? Indeed, if you average all three of them, you get Clinton +4.8, and the non-outlier is Clinton +5, so how you possibly calculate "the 3-5 range" is beyond me. Unless "3-5" is code in your book for "5". Which doesn't change the idea that the Pew poll way closer to reality than the Rasmussen poll.

I never equated Pew to Rasmussen except to put both polls in the same trash heap for the reasons I have stated twice now.

Rasmussen is an outlier. However, I will continue to point out that Scott Rasmussen does not have anything to do with Rasmussen anymore, so comparing 2012 to 2016 may be a bit fallacious. The R house effect may be even worse under new management.

Pew was slightly out of the range when Clinton was surging at the time, but not by that much. A few weeks ago, it was basically Clinton in the 5-8 point range with the Washington Post and Reuters as outliers at +12 and +14 or whatever crazy Reuters number they had at the time. It's a reasonable poll for the two week period ending 6/26, but not so much 7/7.

With that said, I put stock in neither of those polls and restate the narrative is roughly in the 3-5 point range at this point in time, down a slight bit from a few weeks ago. If you want to make it 3-6, that's fine. There have been a few polls at +1 or +2 and a few at +6 as well, IIRC.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ia/iowa_senate_ernst_vs_braley-3990.html
Most polls said Iowa senate 2014 was going to be close, except Des Moines Register, and they got it right. Just because it's an outlier doesn't mean it's wrong.

[HillOfANight]

http://www.people-press.org/2016/07/07/vote-preference-over-time/
http://www.businessinsider.com/libya-to-resume-oil-exports-but-analysts-skeptical-2016-7

Just read this Business Insider article and the Pew poll came to mind.

It noted Romney led whites 18-49 by 7. Trump is only leading this group in Pew (white nonhispanic) by 1.

Specifically white women 18-49 have gone from R+2 in 2012 to D+17. White men 18-49 have moved insignificantly from R+14 to R+17.

White men 50+ have swung 8 points to Trump while white women 50+ have swung 15 to Clinton.