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  KY-Cofounder Pulse/Google Consumer Surveys: Trump+5
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Author Topic: KY-Cofounder Pulse/Google Consumer Surveys: Trump+5  (Read 1903 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 11, 2016, 08:20:44 am »

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Presumptive Republican nominee for President Donald Trump leads the Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Kentucky, finds a Cofounder Pulse Poll released today.

The survey was conducted from Tuesday, July 5 to Thursday, July 7 and is sponsored by the leading Kentucky-based public affairs firm, Babbage Cofounder.

Trump, who won the state's March Republican Caucus by 4% over Texas Senator Ted Cruz, leads Clinton ahead of his visit to Lexington on Monday.

“Kentucky has trended Republican in federal elections for more than 20 years and Donald Trump is certainly taking advantage of that momentum,” said Bob Babbage, lead lobbyist for Babbage Cofounder.

Clinton sparked a controversy in recent months, particularly in energy-producing regions such as Kentucky, over comments concerning coal companies and coal miners. Clinton back-tracked from those remarks in the lead up to the Commonwealth's Democratic Presidential Primary in May, which she narrowly won over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

The Cofounder Pulse Poll utilizes Google Consumer Surveys to determine a representative sample of how the internet population in Kentucky feels about a particular issue or political race. Google Consumer Surveys makes use of inferred demographic and location information to employ stratified sampling method by distributing the surveys based on the targeted audience to Google’s publisher network and/or Android smartphone users. Google infers demographics through respondents’ browsing history (DoubleClick cookies for age gender and IP address for geography), then they match them against existing government statistical data. Google Consumer Surveys uses post-stratification weighting to compensate for sample deficiencies to remove bias among the survey sample. This gives a more accurate result with lower root mean square error (RMSE) which also makes the results better represent the Current Population Survey (CPS).

In 2012, Nate Silver, then of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog fame, concluded that Google Consumer Surveys was the #1 most accurate poll online and the #2 most accurate poll overall.

http://www.lex18.com/story/32414139/babbage-cofounder-poll-donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-in-kentucky
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 08:22:44 am »

Sigh. Will we ever get a decent KY poll?
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dspNY
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 08:23:57 am »

OK, where are the topline numbers

And if this is a legit poll, RIP any chances at President Trump
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 08:25:27 am »

Daaaaamn, look at those undecided numbers:

Img
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dspNY
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 08:25:58 am »

Daaaaamn, look at those undecided numbers:

Img


Junk poll
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mds32
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2016, 08:30:10 am »

That is just horrible. Are these companies trying to push people to answer?
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2016, 08:46:00 am »

I question the accuracy of this poll, but if the Trumpster is only in a single digit lead in states like KY, he is in very deep trouble.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2016, 08:48:48 am »

I question the accuracy of this poll, but if the Trumpster is only in a single digit lead in states like KY, he is in very deep trouble.

I wouldn't read too much into it. The Southern states often troll around and we get R+5 or R+10 polls and then they end up voting R+20 ...

KY also had much closer polls in 2008 and 2012 too and ended up for Romney by 23 ...
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2016, 09:06:39 am »

Democratic nominees for President have spent little time in Kentucky in recent years. With the demise of the coal business and basically the once-powerful United Mine Workers Union, the only big Democratic-leaning areas in this otherwise-rural state Louisville. Kentucky has a below-average number of blacks and Hispanics. 

Kentucky might get closer for Democrats if Hillary Clinton chooses to contest India (which would mean media buys in Louisville and in Evansville (IN) and Missouri, in which case television ads might appear in the Cape Girardeau-Parducah TV markets as well as Ohio (Cincinnati-Covington) and the Portsmouth-Ashland-Huntington market. Who knows? Maybe she will take some campaign visits to Kentucky if the state looks promising.


We could also be seeing a Trump collapse.   
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Doctor Imperialism
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2016, 09:38:17 am »

Democratic nominees for President have spent little time in Kentucky in recent years. With the demise of the coal business and basically the once-powerful United Mine Workers Union, the only big Democratic-leaning areas in this otherwise-rural state Louisville. Kentucky has a below-average number of blacks and Hispanics.  

Kentucky might get closer for Democrats if Hillary Clinton chooses to contest India (which would mean media buys in Louisville and in Evansville (IN) and Missouri, in which case television ads might appear in the Cape Girardeau-Parducah TV markets as well as Ohio (Cincinnati-Covington) and the Portsmouth-Ashland-Huntington market. Who knows? Maybe she will take some campaign visits to Kentucky if the state looks promising.


We could also be seeing a Trump collapse.    

I don't think she'll have much luck with that.

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2016, 10:14:00 am »

I can't believe Hillary isn't winning this - judging only (I repeat, only) by what I see on the ground.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2016, 10:40:59 am »

I can't believe Hillary isn't winning this - judging only (I repeat, only) by what I see on the ground.

And what do you see on the ground? And which city specifically?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2016, 10:48:35 am »

I TOLD YOU ALL KY WAS LEAN D!!!

/s

No doubt, Trump is leading by more than this, but he still has a better chance of losing KY (.01%) than he does of winning OR (.001%).
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2016, 10:53:49 am »

And what do you see on the ground? And which city specifically?

Bellevue, specifically. People are almost entirely for Hillary.
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2016, 10:54:41 am »

I can't believe Hillary isn't winning this - judging only (I repeat, only) by what I see on the ground.

And what do you see on the ground? And which city specifically?

He also saw overwhelming support for Grimes and Conway in KY. lol
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2016, 10:57:46 am »

Bandit, even Bill Clinton lost your home county by wide margins. And he won the state twice.

It seems what you see "on the ground" has not much to do with reality or the statewide result.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2016, 11:01:15 am »

Bandit, even Bill Clinton lost your home county by wide margins. And he won the state twice.

The areas near big cities have trended Democratic since then.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2016, 11:05:03 am »

Wait why is Trump campaigning in Kentucky this week? lmao
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2016, 11:05:29 am »

Bandit, even Bill Clinton lost your home county by wide margins. And he won the state twice.

The areas near big cities have trended Democratic since then.

Yeah, but other areas such as the SE have trended the complete opposite way. KY is still a strong GOP state on the Pres. level and Trump is a good fit for the state.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2016, 11:06:51 am »

Yeah, but other areas such as the SE have trended the complete opposite way. KY is still a strong GOP state on the Pres. level and Trump is a good fit for the state.

A right-wing New York billionaire isn't exactly a good fit for Kentucky.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2016, 11:29:42 am »

Wait why is Trump campaigning in Kentucky this week? lmao
He's not. It's a private fundraiser.

http://www.wkyt.com/content/news/Donald-Trump--386273831.html
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Crumpets
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2016, 11:44:16 am »

Obama got 37.78% in Kentucky in 2012. If this poll is to be believed, Hillary only needs to win a quarter of undecided to outperform him there.
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Ljube
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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2016, 12:03:47 pm »

Hillary's result in KY will be better than Obama's.
It could be a 5-7% victory by Trump.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #23 on: July 11, 2016, 12:05:46 pm »

Hillary's result in KY will be better than Obama's.
It could be a 5-7% victory by Trump.


I doubt it since she wants to put the miners out of business.
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yeah_93
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« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2016, 12:06:06 pm »

And what do you see on the ground? And which city specifically?

Bellevue, specifically. People are almost entirely for Hillary.
Doesn't Bellevue have like 6000 people?

Hillary isn't going to win Campbell county, and she isn't going to win Kentucky.
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