KY-Cofounder Pulse/Google Consumer Surveys: Trump+5 (user search)
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  KY-Cofounder Pulse/Google Consumer Surveys: Trump+5 (search mode)
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Author Topic: KY-Cofounder Pulse/Google Consumer Surveys: Trump+5  (Read 2530 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« on: July 11, 2016, 08:20:44 AM »

LEXINGTON, Ky. – Presumptive Republican nominee for President Donald Trump leads the Democratic challenger Hillary Clinton by 5 points in Kentucky, finds a Cofounder Pulse Poll released today.

The survey was conducted from Tuesday, July 5 to Thursday, July 7 and is sponsored by the leading Kentucky-based public affairs firm, Babbage Cofounder.

Trump, who won the state's March Republican Caucus by 4% over Texas Senator Ted Cruz, leads Clinton ahead of his visit to Lexington on Monday.

“Kentucky has trended Republican in federal elections for more than 20 years and Donald Trump is certainly taking advantage of that momentum,” said Bob Babbage, lead lobbyist for Babbage Cofounder.

Clinton sparked a controversy in recent months, particularly in energy-producing regions such as Kentucky, over comments concerning coal companies and coal miners. Clinton back-tracked from those remarks in the lead up to the Commonwealth's Democratic Presidential Primary in May, which she narrowly won over Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders.

The Cofounder Pulse Poll utilizes Google Consumer Surveys to determine a representative sample of how the internet population in Kentucky feels about a particular issue or political race. Google Consumer Surveys makes use of inferred demographic and location information to employ stratified sampling method by distributing the surveys based on the targeted audience to Google’s publisher network and/or Android smartphone users. Google infers demographics through respondents’ browsing history (DoubleClick cookies for age gender and IP address for geography), then they match them against existing government statistical data. Google Consumer Surveys uses post-stratification weighting to compensate for sample deficiencies to remove bias among the survey sample. This gives a more accurate result with lower root mean square error (RMSE) which also makes the results better represent the Current Population Survey (CPS).

In 2012, Nate Silver, then of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog fame, concluded that Google Consumer Surveys was the #1 most accurate poll online and the #2 most accurate poll overall.

http://www.lex18.com/story/32414139/babbage-cofounder-poll-donald-trump-leads-hillary-clinton-in-kentucky
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 08:25:27 AM »

Daaaaamn, look at those undecided numbers:

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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 08:48:48 AM »

I question the accuracy of this poll, but if the Trumpster is only in a single digit lead in states like KY, he is in very deep trouble.

I wouldn't read too much into it. The Southern states often troll around and we get R+5 or R+10 polls and then they end up voting R+20 ...

KY also had much closer polls in 2008 and 2012 too and ended up for Romney by 23 ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 10:57:46 AM »

Bandit, even Bill Clinton lost your home county by wide margins. And he won the state twice.

It seems what you see "on the ground" has not much to do with reality or the statewide result.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 11:05:29 AM »

Bandit, even Bill Clinton lost your home county by wide margins. And he won the state twice.

The areas near big cities have trended Democratic since then.

Yeah, but other areas such as the SE have trended the complete opposite way. KY is still a strong GOP state on the Pres. level and Trump is a good fit for the state.
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