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Author Topic: NV-Monmouth: Clinton +4  (Read 1403 times)
Know Nothing
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« on: July 11, 2016, 12:07:33 pm »

Don't have the full link, but I saw it on twitter.

https ://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/752548412046934021

I'll post it if I find it.

Clinton 45%
Trump 41%

GOP: Trump 88-6
DEM: Clinton 92-3
IND: Trump 39-37
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 12:09:15 pm »

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/07/poll-nevada-clinton-trump-225367

Seems about right. Certainly not a terrible result for Trump, given the state of the race.
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 12:11:08 pm »

I expect Nevada to be competitive this time. I expect that Hillary won't win so many Dems as this poll seems to indicate.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 12:11:41 pm »

Not too bad. Trump barely wins Independents. If he can slightly go up with Republicans, he can keep it close, but there are better targets. I wonder if they polled the Senate race.
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 12:11:52 pm »

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24854

Clinton 45
Trump 41
Johnson 5
Undecided 4
None 4

Clinton leads among women 53 percent to 38 percent, while among men, Trump leads 44 percent to 37 percent.
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2016, 12:13:03 pm »

Not too bad. Trump barely wins Independents. If he can slightly go up with Republicans, he can keep it close, but there are better targets. I wonder if they polled the Senate race.

Heck is up 42-40
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2016, 12:13:25 pm »

I expect Nevada to be competitive this time. I expect that Hillary won't win so many Dems as this poll seems to indicate.


Hope you're right, but I think the state definitely leans D due to the demographics. With Sandoval as VP, Big Don would probably win. But good to see that he's strong among Republicans and slightly leading with Indepedents.
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2016, 12:13:40 pm »

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24854

Clinton 45
Trump 41
Johnson 5
Undecided 4
None 4

Clinton leads among women 53 percent to 38 percent, while among men, Trump leads 44 percent to 37 percent.

That's a very small lead among men. Trump has a lot of room to improve there.
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2016, 12:14:28 pm »

Safe D. NV polling average had underestimated Obama by 4%.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2016, 12:19:46 pm by Gass3268 »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2016, 12:14:49 pm »

Not too bad. Trump barely wins Independents. If he can slightly go up with Republicans, he can keep it close, but there are better targets. I wonder if they polled the Senate race.

Heck is up 42-40
Cool. I found it just after posting the reply.
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2016, 12:19:40 pm »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-07-11/clinton-holds-small-lead-over-trump-in-nevada-monmouth-poll

White voters prefer Trump by 49% to 37%, while Hispanic, black and Asian voters choose Clinton by 64% to 23%.

Similar white margin to 2012 (Obama 43% Romney 56%).
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2016, 12:22:37 pm »

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/trackers/2016-07-11/clinton-holds-small-lead-over-trump-in-nevada-monmouth-poll

White voters prefer Trump by 49% to 37%, while Hispanic, black and Asian voters choose Clinton by 64% to 23%.

Similar white margin to 2012 (Obama 43% Romney 56%).

Poor result among whites. Trump needs to improve there a great deal. More proof it's the Anti-Trump people he still can't unite.
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2016, 12:25:10 pm »

Sorry, Trump's not winning NV. Obama's polls were actually weaker than this in 2012.
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2016, 12:25:41 pm »

How many Hispanics vote in Clark County (greater "Lost Wages") in November? No matter what their economic situation and ever level of assimilation they are going to give Donald Trump a political drubbing. See also Colorado, Florida, and maybe Arizona and Texas this year.  
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2016, 12:29:21 pm »

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/
http://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802209093

Quote
Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 353 drawn from a list of registered voters (203 on a landline and 150 on a cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 55 cell phone interviews.

Problematic to poll in Nevada English only...

Quote
Just over 4-in-10 voters (41%) feel it is very important to keep Clinton from being elected president, but slightly more (46%) say the same about Trump.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2016, 12:42:01 pm »

Lol, Clinton is winning by 4 in an English only poll. Safe D
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2016, 12:50:39 pm »

Safe D. NV polling average had underestimated Obama by 4%.
How do you get to safe? Even if your "underestimated" allegation is true, it's still just "Lean D."

In reality it should technically remain in the "tossup" category at 4% with a slight lean D.
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« Reply #17 on: July 11, 2016, 12:54:44 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.  This is probably due to Latinos and high turnover of population.  Nevada is both a top 5 growth state and top 5 Latino population state. 
 
Certainly any pollster doing Nevada should have Spanish as an option.
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« Reply #18 on: July 11, 2016, 12:56:25 pm »

Clinton +4 without any exclusively Spanish-speaking voters in a Nevada poll is really Clinton +8. Nevada polls with no Spanish-speaking option favor the R's by at least 4 points. It's the reason why Reid kept his seat in 2010 despite all the polls showing him losing
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« Reply #19 on: July 11, 2016, 01:32:56 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs. 

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?
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« Reply #20 on: July 11, 2016, 01:35:38 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.
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Ljube
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« Reply #21 on: July 11, 2016, 02:15:01 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.

There is no reason to suspect there is some kind if systemic bias among pollsters polling Nevada, particularly because 2014 proved otherwise. Until there is more proof, there is no reason to start unskewing Nevada polls.
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« Reply #22 on: July 11, 2016, 02:52:02 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs. 

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

I'd sooner look to years where there were competitive races in Nevada as a basis for predictions this year, rather than a year when Democrats put up no effort in the state. In 2008, 2010, and 2012, polls underestimated Democrats, often by a lot.
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« Reply #23 on: July 11, 2016, 02:55:57 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.

There is no reason to suspect there is some kind if systemic bias among pollsters polling Nevada, particularly because 2014 proved otherwise. Until there is more proof, there is no reason to start unskewing Nevada polls.

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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #24 on: July 11, 2016, 03:15:13 pm »

In the last 3 cycles pollsters have got Nevada wrong more than any other state, averaging 4-6 points over-estimating the Rs.

You realize that Republican candidates in Nevada in 2014 outperformed the polls by a lot, right?

obviously i was talking about presidential cycles. Everyone knows turnout for presidential cycles is completely different. Certainly pollsters should model midterms differently than presidential years. So it is a moot point.

There is no reason to suspect there is some kind if systemic bias among pollsters polling Nevada, particularly because 2014 proved otherwise. Until there is more proof, there is no reason to start unskewing Nevada polls.


There wasn't a competitive statewide race in Nevada in 2014, and in any case pollsters underestimated Republican support nationwide.  It's notable that in a year where this was happening, Hickenlooper slightly outperformed his polling average and Mark Udall matched it.

The 2008/2010/2012 elections have given us enough data points telling us that there is some issue (likely problems polling Latinos) that causes pollsters to underestimate the Democratic vote in Nevada/Colorado in competitive statewide races.

I guess we'll see if the pollsters can prove us wrong, but for now I think it's fair to presume that Dem support in CO/NV is being at least somewhat understated by the polls.
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