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Author Topic: NV-Monmouth: Heck+2  (Read 867 times)
Know Nothing
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« on: July 11, 2016, 12:09:31 pm »
https ://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/752549133114830848

Don't have the full poll right now.

Joe Heck (R): 42%
Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 40%
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 12:13:50 pm »
Excellent news! Let's go Joe!
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Endorsements:
AZ-SEN: Martha McSally
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: John James
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
NV-SEN: Dean Heller
OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
FL-GOV: Ron DeSantis
OH-GOV: Mike DeWine
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WI-GOV: Scott Walker
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 12:14:19 pm »
Masto is going to win this race. No way she loses when Clinton will win by a 10+ margin.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 12:15:18 pm »
Awful number for Heck.
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 12:33:52 pm »
Heck's probably going to have to overperform Trump by more than 6 if he's going to win. If Heck is consistently only up by 1-3 points, that's concerning to him in a state like NV.
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2016, 12:37:51 pm »
Clinton's not going to win NV by 4 and Heck is not going to win this election.  Climbing Catherine marches on.

I look forward to seeing how under-sampled content NV Hispanics were when the full poll is out.
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2016, 12:40:49 pm »
Lol, it was an English only poll.

Quote from: HillOfANight on July 11, 2016, 12:29:21 pm
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/
http://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802209093

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Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 353 drawn from a list of registered voters (203 on a landline and 150 on a cell phone) and a random digit dial supplement of 55 cell phone interviews.

Problematic to poll in Nevada English only...
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Ranked Preferences for Announced Democratic Nominees:

1. Warren
2. Harris
3. Klobuchar
4. Gillibrand
5. Castro
6. Buttigieg
7. Booker
8. Delaney
9. Gabbard
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2016, 12:43:01 pm »
That explains it.  Content NV Hispanics would never bother to answer such a racist poll.
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2016, 01:28:25 pm »
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/

Among Whites: Heck +12 (47-35)   vs. Trump +12 (49-37)
Among Non-Whites: Masto +20 (49-29) vs. Clinton +41 (64-23)

66% White  
11% Black  
15% Hispanic
  8% Other  

Considering that even that terrible human being Shelley freaking Berkley almost won here in 2012, it's probably still a difficult race for the GOP to win.
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2016, 01:34:03 pm »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 11, 2016, 01:28:25 pm
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/

Among Whites: Heck +12 (47-35)   vs. Trump +12 (49-37)
Among Non-Whites: Masto +20 (49-29) vs. Clinton +41 (64-23)

66% White  
11% Black  
15% Hispanic
  8% Other  

Considering that even that terrible human being Shelley freaking Berkley almost won here in 2012, it's probably still a difficult race for the GOP to win.
VanDerBeek is not running a far-right campaign to get 5% this time.
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2016, 01:36:03 pm »
Quote from: Committeeman Kingpoleon on July 11, 2016, 01:34:03 pm
VanDerBeek is not running a far-right campaign to get 5% this time.

In this poll, Tom Jones of the Independent American Party has 5% and "none of these candidates" has 6%.
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2016, 04:33:05 pm »
Dems can't afford to take this race for granted, that's for sure.

Quote from: Committeeman Kingpoleon on July 11, 2016, 01:34:03 pm
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 11, 2016, 01:28:25 pm
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/

Among Whites: Heck +12 (47-35)   vs. Trump +12 (49-37)
Among Non-Whites: Masto +20 (49-29) vs. Clinton +41 (64-23)

66% White 
11% Black 
15% Hispanic
  8% Other 

Considering that even that terrible human being Shelley freaking Berkley almost won here in 2012, it's probably still a difficult race for the GOP to win.
VanDerBeek is not running a far-right campaign to get 5% this time.

Nobody knew who VanDerBeek was, much less his ideology. Romney and Heller got nearly the same share of the vote. VDB and "None of the Above" were mostly protest votes from Obama voters who couldn't stomach Berkley. Any competent Democrat would've won that race with room to spare, as Heller demonstrated little to no crossover appeal.

Heck, on the other hand, has demonstrated some crossover appeal in his swing district, so he'll be a tougher nut to crack. But CCM Purple heart is also a much better candidate than Berkley, and Heck will have to deal with Trump.
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2016, 05:43:25 pm »
Why all the hate for Shelley Berkley?
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2016, 06:43:34 pm »
^ Because that was a very winnable race and a noncorrupt Democrat would have likely won.
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2016, 07:47:05 pm »
After the polls got Reid '10 sensationally wrong, and underestimated Obama '12 by almost 4 points, I'm not believing these numbers.

Clinton isn't +4 (it'll be more like +8-10), and if Heck is only outpacing Trump by +2, it isn't enough.

Also have big doubts about Latino representation in this poll.
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« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2016, 05:23:33 pm »
Safe to say the winner of this race will be the party of the winner of the Prez election?
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« Reply #16 on: July 12, 2016, 05:24:43 pm »
Quote from: FreePhoenix on July 12, 2016, 05:23:33 pm
Safe to say the winner of this race will be the party of the winner of the Prez election?

Safer to say it'll be the same as the winner of Prez race in Nevada.
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« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2016, 05:44:04 pm »
Heck's number isn't great, but I'm worried about this race - Heck probably runs ahead of Trump, the question is by how much?

Such a shame Harry Reid decided to retire.
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