Dems can't afford to take this race for granted, that's for sure.
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NV_071116/
Among Whites: Heck +12 (47-35) vs. Trump +12 (49-37)
Among Non-Whites: Masto +20 (49-29) vs. Clinton +41 (64-23)
66% White
11% Black
15% Hispanic
8% Other
Considering that even that terrible human being Shelley freaking Berkley almost won here in 2012, it's probably still a difficult race for the GOP to win.
VanDerBeek is not running a far-right campaign to get 5% this time.
Nobody knew who VanDerBeek was, much less his ideology. Romney and Heller got nearly the same share of the vote. VDB and "None of the Above" were mostly protest votes from Obama voters who couldn't stomach Berkley. Any competent Democrat would've won that race with room to spare, as Heller demonstrated little to no crossover appeal.
Heck, on the other hand, has demonstrated some crossover appeal in his swing district, so he'll be a tougher nut to crack. But CCM
is also a much better candidate than Berkley, and Heck will have to deal with Trump.