FL-JMC: Trump +5
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Author Topic: FL-JMC: Trump +5  (Read 3411 times)
HillOfANight
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« on: July 11, 2016, 03:18:03 PM »
http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Florida-Executive-Summary.pdf
https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/752587945509588992

Trump 47
Clinton 42
Johnson 2
Stein 1
Undecided 8

JMC was relatively good in LA's 2015 gov race, until they released the junky JBE +4 (he won by 12).
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: July 11, 2016, 03:19:25 PM »
TRUMP ahead with latinos? I would love to see these numbers, but that can't be taken seriously. Junk, unfortunately.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #2 on: July 11, 2016, 03:22:09 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on July 11, 2016, 03:19:25 PM
TRUMP ahead with latinos? I would love to see these numbers, but that can't be taken seriously. Junk, unfortunately.

In this poll, Trump has a 49-36% lead over Clinton among Hispanics, largely due to a 72-11% lead
among Hispanic Republicans;

lol, this would only be possible with a robolandline poll
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #3 on: July 11, 2016, 03:22:53 PM »
No poll is junk unless the undecided are giant but this isn't right. But that saying two polls have Trump at 47 today.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2016, 03:31:37 PM »
Today I learned Florida is just as competitive as Kentucky.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2016, 03:32:54 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 07:17:00 AM by HillOfANight »
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

OnMessage: C+
JMC: B- C
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Reginald
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« Reply #6 on: July 11, 2016, 03:33:45 PM »
Past month's Florida partisan crosstabs:

Republicans
Trump +74 (QU 6/19)
Trump +75 (CBS/YG 6/24)
Trump +77 (SUSA 6/27)
Trump +64 (JMC 7/10)

Democrats
Clinton +91 (QU)
Clinton +76 (CBS/YG)
Clinton +83 (SUSA)
Clinton +54 (JMC)

Independents
Clinton +9 (QU)
40-40 tie (CBS/YG)
Trump +4 (SUSA)
Trump +15 (JMC)
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #7 on: July 11, 2016, 03:44:31 PM »
Why do all the junk pollsters release at the same time.
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swf541
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« Reply #8 on: July 11, 2016, 03:45:00 PM »
Yea, gonna wait for some other pollsters with realistic crosstabs to make judgement on if this swung to Trump
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #9 on: July 11, 2016, 03:45:45 PM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 11, 2016, 03:22:30 PM
This is arguably the worst swing state poll for Clinton in a long time. If Trump wins FL, he's already won OH. Then PA becomes the do or die state for him.

Also, 55% of the respondents in this poll are female. lol

Trump is not up 13% with Hispanics.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: July 11, 2016, 03:48:34 PM »
Why is it so hard to poll Hispanics?
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Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #11 on: July 11, 2016, 03:50:14 PM »
Trump leading among Latinos by 13? Dream on.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: July 11, 2016, 04:02:40 PM »
Quote from: xingkerui on July 11, 2016, 03:50:14 PM
Trump leading among Latinos by 13? Dream on.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: July 11, 2016, 04:37:51 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 11, 2016, 03:48:34 PM
Why is it so hard to poll Hispanics?

Trying to figure out which one prefer English over Spanish or those who speak only English or only Spanish.

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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: July 11, 2016, 06:25:07 PM »
Two push polls of Florida in the same day (the other one with Trump +2 was actually a poll commissioned by Rick Scott)
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #15 on: July 11, 2016, 06:31:35 PM »
You know Trump is in trouble when his best numbers come from QU.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: July 11, 2016, 06:32:59 PM »
JMC is a good consultant, but I don't really buy this.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: July 12, 2016, 12:40:26 AM »
This also has Obama at 40-53 approval despite him being on positive ground nationally. JUNK POLL!
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Dutch Conservative
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« Reply #18 on: July 12, 2016, 03:59:05 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on July 12, 2016, 12:40:26 AM
This also has Obama at 40-53 approval despite him being on positive ground nationally. JUNK POLL!

I can see this poll is way off the average, but can you explain why that makes it junk? It's just an honest question. I'm new to this forum and most of the times a poll is good for Trump I read: 'junk'. Is the sample too small? Were mistakes made in the methodology? I see 538 has these pollsters rated quit low.
Could Obama's favorables in Florida be lower than the national average?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2016, 04:48:02 AM »
Quote from: Dutch Conservative on July 12, 2016, 03:59:05 AM
Quote from: IceSpear on July 12, 2016, 12:40:26 AM
This also has Obama at 40-53 approval despite him being on positive ground nationally. JUNK POLL!

I can see this poll is way off the average, but can you explain why that makes it junk? It's just an honest question. I'm new to this forum and most of the times a poll is good for Trump I read: 'junk'. Is the sample too small? Were mistakes made in the methodology? I see 538 has these pollsters rated quit low.
Could Obama's favorables in Florida be lower than the national average?

Florida is pretty close to the national average so if Obama has positive national approval Florida should be positive or close to tied. -13 is pretty off and indicates the poll isn't representative of a Florida electorate.

Being off the average doesn't necessarily make a poll bad but you can look at the past record (not great in this case) and whether the results make internal sense (this is trickier because subgroups have huge MoE).
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A Perez
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« Reply #20 on: July 12, 2016, 04:56:53 AM »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 05:00:55 AM by A Perez »
Please, when linking to pollsters, note  that they are partisan, I'd applicable, at in the case of JMC, who just released a Florida outlier favorable to the candidate supported by the pollster.
Poll aggregators identify JMC Analytics as Republican.  
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/jmc-analytics-and-polling-r-24470
Thanks.
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A Perez
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« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2016, 05:00:27 AM »
Conflict of interest alert. The pollster is identified as a Republican pollster  http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/jmc-analytics-and-polling-r-24470
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Gass3268
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« Reply #22 on: July 12, 2016, 06:18:55 AM »

JMC just saw their rating drop down to a C, lol!
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #23 on: July 12, 2016, 07:17:24 AM »

Lol, I thought you were joking, but just saw 538 knock them down, and adjusted my post accordingly
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Redban
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« Reply #24 on: July 12, 2016, 08:26:07 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 11, 2016, 03:22:30 PM
This is arguably the worst swing state poll for Clinton in a long time. If Trump wins FL, he's already won OH. Then PA becomes the do or die state for him.

Also, 55% of the respondents in this poll are female. lol

For over 3 straight decades, Florida has always voted more Republican than Ohio does.
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