TX-23: Anzalone-Liszt (D): Rep. Hurd (R) losing rematch

[Miles]

Report.

Gallego (D) - 45%
Hurd (R) - 37%
Corvalan (L)- 4%

Hillary leads Trump 45/40 in the district.

The poll is also slightly old; they went in the field starting June 20th.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Glad to see that Will Hurd's career of out of touch representation is coming to an end.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

No surprise whatsoever, for both races.   

[windjammer]

Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.

Yes, but Canseco always manages to overperform.

[Xing]

Dominating! This is a must-win for Democrats if they want even a glimmer of hope of winning the House.

[Indy Texas]

Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.

Yes, but Canseco always manages to overperform.

The GOP should have renominated Canseco in 2014.

You just can't win that district as a Republican unless you get the "Hispanic Surname Bump."

It would be nice for the 23rd to have a rural representative instead of someone from the San Antonio suburbs who take a two-hour flight to get to some parts of his district and doesn't know anything about border issues or ranching or water issues.

[Vosem]

Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.

Yes, but Canseco always manages to overperform.

The GOP should have renominated Canseco in 2014.

You just can't win that district as a Republican unless you get the "Hispanic Surname Bump."

I'm sorry, but this is pretty silly. Canseco lost this district in 2012 with an environment almost certainly better than it will be this year (Romney, who had no Hispanic last name, ran ahead of him and in fact won outright). Hurd won in 2014, as a Republican, without a "Hispanic Surname Bump".

This is the sort of rural, heavily-Hispanic area that is prone to extremely large swings between presidential and midterm elections normally, and where Trump is going to play very poorly and exacerbate that trend even further. I don't think any Republican could've defended this with Trump at the top.

[Indy Texas]

Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.

Yes, but Canseco always manages to overperform.

The GOP should have renominated Canseco in 2014.

You just can't win that district as a Republican unless you get the "Hispanic Surname Bump."

I'm sorry, but this is pretty silly. Canseco lost this district in 2012 with an environment almost certainly better than it will be this year (Romney, who had no Hispanic last name, ran ahead of him and in fact won outright). Hurd won in 2014, as a Republican, without a "Hispanic Surname Bump".

This is the sort of rural, heavily-Hispanic area that is prone to extremely large swings between presidential and midterm elections normally, and where Trump is going to play very poorly and exacerbate that trend even further. I don't think any Republican could've defended this with Trump at the top.

2014 was a very good year for the GOP, and it was a midterm election.

Republicans either need it to be a midterm year or to have a Hispanic candidate to win that district in its current configuration. In 2016, they have neither of those things.

[Badger]

Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.

Yes, but Canseco always manages to overperform.

It would be nice for the 23rd to have a rural representative instead of someone from the San Antonio suburbs who take a two-hour flight to get to some parts of his district and doesn't know anything about border issues or ranching or water issues.

Well, blame that on gerrymandering.

[Zioneer]

Not surprised, but isn't the PVI of this district R+3? Romney won it 51-48 in 2012.

Yes, but Canseco always manages to overperform.

It would be nice for the 23rd to have a rural representative instead of someone from the San Antonio suburbs who take a two-hour flight to get to some parts of his district and doesn't know anything about border issues or ranching or water issues.

Well, blame that on gerrymandering.

It'd be nice to have a law that eliminates gerrymandering entirely. Gerrymandering from both parties.