CO-Harper: Clinton +7

[Ljube]

Colorado seems to be a bad fit for Big Don. Likely most of the 17 other fellows would do better here. Nevertheless, all he needs is Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania and we gonna have President TRUMP.

That's too bad, he's only (barely) leading FL in GOP polls with wacky (Trump winning Hispanics in JMC) or no demographics (OnMessage).

Barely is enough on election day. Neither Big Don nor Hilldog will win Florida by more than three or four points.

My prediction for the last fifteen months has been that Florida will be the closest state, within 1%.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Colorado President by Harper Polling on 2016-07-09

Summary: D: 45%, R: 38%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[heatcharger]

Interesting she's leading by 7 when she's -19 net favorables while Trump is only -14.

[Ebsy]

When looking at demographic support, beware small n crosstabs, especially in state polls.

[pbrower2a]

lol Clinton is not leading in CO if Trump is winning FL and IA. Either Clinton is the real leader in those two states or Trump is winning here.

The last two Florida polls are junk (partisanship), and I reject them.

Barack Obama was an unusually strong match for Iowa in 2008 and 2012. Remember that Gore came close to losing it in a 50-50 election and Kerry actually lost the state. Iowa has small minority populations, but Colorado has a large Hispanic population.

Hillary Clinton can win Colorado and lose Iowa. Iowa is a legitimate swing state this year.

We shall see what PPP says of Missouri fairly soon.

[Dumbo]

LBJ won Iowa 1964 (9 electoral votes)
2016: 6 electoral votes (winner: Trump ?)

JFK lost Colorado 1960 (6 electoral votes)
2016: 9 electoral votes (winner: Clinton ?)

"right place right time"