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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Trump leads or tied in all three states  (Read 2761 times)
Mr. Morden
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« on: July 13, 2016, 05:01:39 am »

Quinnipiac poll of FL, OH, and PA:

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2365

Florida
Trump 42%
Clinton 39%

Ohio
Clinton 41%
Trump 41%

Pennsylvania
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 05:03:34 am »

4-way:

Florida
Trump 41%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

Ohio
Trump 37%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 6%

Pennsylvania
Trump 40%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2016, 05:05:00 am »

The FL and PA numbers really couldn't be better for Trump at this point.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2016, 05:08:14 am »

4-way:

Florida
Trump 41%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

Ohio
Trump 37%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 6%

Pennsylvania
Trump 40%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%


I'd be more willing to believe that Johnson is on his way to getting 7-9% if he were taking more votes away from Trump than from Clinton. As it is, many of those people are probably Democrats - and not even necessarily Sanders supporters but old school working-class types who had issues with some of the previous Clinton president's policies. Such people will likely hold their nose for Hillary in November.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2016, 05:20:17 am »

As it is, many of those people are probably Democrats - and not even necessarily Sanders supporters but old school working-class types who had issues with some of the previous Clinton president's policies.

Both Johnson and Stein support skews very young.

Among 18-34 year olds in the three states:

Florida
Clinton 38%
Trump 14%
Johnson 13%
Stein 12%

Ohio
Clinton 36%
Trump 21%
Johnson 14%
Stein 11%

Pennsylvania
Clinton 37%
Trump 19%
Johnson 19%
Stein 7%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2016, 05:29:26 am »

LOL at Ohio being the most Democratic state. Junk. Quinnipiac has really gone downhill lately.

Still, it wouldn't really surprise me if Trump is ahead in them right now considering how Hillary just had one of the worst weeks of her campaign. Let the meltdowns begin!
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Know Nothing
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« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2016, 05:54:14 am »

Florida

While the gender gap remains wide, Trump gains support among men, who back him 50 - 29 percent, and women, who back Clinton 48 - 36 percent, compared to 52 - 34 percent in June. Independent voters shift from 44 - 35 percent for Clinton last month to 43 - 30 percent for Trump today. Republicans back Trump 82 - 6 percent, while Clinton leads 87 - 4 among Democrats. White voters back Trump 54 - 30 percent, as non-white voters go to Clinton 56 - 21 percent.

Florida voters give Clinton and Trump negative favorability ratings, 35 - 59 percent for her and 38 - 54 percent for him.

Ohio

Gender and racial gaps continue to divide Ohio voters. Men back Trump 47 - 33 percent, while women go to Clinton 48 - 35 percent. White voters go Republican 46 - 35 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 69 - 15 percent.

Trump leads 77 - 6 percent among Republicans and 43 - 31 percent among independent voters, while Democrats back Clinton 90 - 4 percent.

Ohio voters give Clinton a negative 35 - 60 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 34 - 59 percent.

Pennsylvania

The gender gap is shrinking in Pennsylvania, where Clinton leads 43 - 39 percent among women, down from 50 - 34 percent in June, while Trump leads 48 - 37 percent among men, compared to 50 - 33 percent last month. He leads 82 - 5 percent among Republicans, as Clinton takes Democrats 82 - 9 percent. Independent voters are divided with 39 percent for Trump and 36 percent for Clinton. White voters go Republican 51 - 33 percent, while non-white voters go Democratic 72 - 12 percent.

Keystone State voters give Clinton a negative 31 - 65 percent favorability rating, and give Trump a negative 38 - 57 percent.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2016, 06:14:50 am »

More evidence that I was not being a Chicken Little yesterday. Plus, we learned from 2012 to trust the state polls a lot more than the national ones.

Trump very well could win if the election were held today. Thankfully it's not, but I think we are seeing the beginnings of a clear shift.
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henster
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« Reply #8 on: July 13, 2016, 06:19:39 am »

The Q poll has FL electorate 63% white while exits had it 67% in 2012. For OH it was 79/15 in '12 and 80/12 in the Q poll, but the exit poll is dubious because blacks only make up 12% of Ohio's population.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #9 on: July 13, 2016, 06:40:51 am »

Man, the polls are all over the place. I have followed US politics for a long time and I have honestly never seen as wildly fluctuating general election polls as over the last few weeks.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: July 13, 2016, 06:53:32 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #11 on: July 13, 2016, 06:56:47 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?

Really?

It's the e-mails. As usual, the nuance is lost and people think Comey's revelations were earth-shattering.
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sjkqw
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« Reply #12 on: July 13, 2016, 06:59:52 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?

Really?

It's the e-mails. As usual, the nuance is lost and people think Comey's revelations were earth-shattering.

I have a feeling it's not the emails...
Didn't check the dates, but has Dallas been captured in this?
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henster
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« Reply #13 on: July 13, 2016, 07:24:05 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?

Really?

It's the e-mails. As usual, the nuance is lost and people think Comey's revelations were earth-shattering.

I have a feeling it's not the emails...
Didn't check the dates, but has Dallas been captured in this?

June 30-July 11, so it would just barely have any post-Dallas data in it.  It's the emails.  The biggest change is Clinton falling to a tie on honest and trustworthy.  If nothing else, this shows that TV ads don't matter.

Of course it is the emails, ABC poll showed that 56% wanted her charged as did the NBC poll, her favorability rating continue to slump. She should be well over 50% against Trump but she is a terrible candidate.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #14 on: July 13, 2016, 07:27:08 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?

Really?

It's the e-mails. As usual, the nuance is lost and people think Comey's revelations were earth-shattering.

I have a feeling it's not the emails...
Didn't check the dates, but has Dallas been captured in this?

June 30-July 11, so it would just barely have any post-Dallas data in it.  It's the emails.  The biggest change is Clinton falling to a tie on honest and trustworthy.  If nothing else, this shows that TV ads don't matter.

Of course it is the emails, ABC poll showed that 56% wanted her charged as did the NBC poll, her favorability rating continue to slump. She should be well over 50% against Trump but she is a terrible candidate.

Or she's a spectacular candidate and America is just a terrible country. Cheesy

Tongue
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Icefire9
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« Reply #15 on: July 13, 2016, 07:31:03 am »

Quinnipiac has always given bad results for Clinton, I'm not worried.
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WI is Safe D
Beef
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« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2016, 07:33:39 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?

Really?

It's the e-mails. As usual, the nuance is lost and people think Comey's revelations were earth-shattering.

I have a feeling it's not the emails...
Didn't check the dates, but has Dallas been captured in this?

June 30-July 11, so it would just barely have any post-Dallas data in it.  It's the emails.  The biggest change is Clinton falling to a tie on honest and trustworthy.  If nothing else, this shows that TV ads don't matter.

Of course it is the emails, ABC poll showed that 56% wanted her charged as did the NBC poll, her favorability rating continue to slump. She should be well over 50% against Trump but she is a terrible candidate.

Or she's a spectacular candidate and America is just a terrible country. Cheesy

Tongue

Seeing Trump speak and the fact that he gets support from 40% of Americans already tells me America is a terrible country.
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RJEvans
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« Reply #17 on: July 13, 2016, 07:53:20 am »

Americans have no one to blame but themselves if Trump wins.
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bilaps
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« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2016, 08:04:18 am »

Wow! How can Donald Trump be gaining like this?

Really?

It's the e-mails. As usual, the nuance is lost and people think Comey's revelations were earth-shattering.

I have a feeling it's not the emails...
Didn't check the dates, but has Dallas been captured in this?

June 30-July 11, so it would just barely have any post-Dallas data in it.  It's the emails.  The biggest change is Clinton falling to a tie on honest and trustworthy.  If nothing else, this shows that TV ads don't matter.

Of course it is the emails, ABC poll showed that 56% wanted her charged as did the NBC poll, her favorability rating continue to slump. She should be well over 50% against Trump but she is a terrible candidate.

Or she's a spectacular candidate and America is just a terrible country. Cheesy

Tongue

Honestly, it's neither
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sjkqw
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« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2016, 08:04:49 am »

Gotta love how 75% agree that prejudice against minorities is a HUGE problem across these states, and they still vote for that bigot racist sexist Donald Trump. Glad to see the media meme is not fooling some people.

Also, I don't understand how anyone could possibly be bothered by the e-mails, but I'll take it!
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mds32
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2016, 08:11:02 am »

Americans have no one to blame but themselves if Trump wins.

True
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2016, 08:14:07 am »

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist will be releasing polls for OH and PA today at 5pm ET. Will be interesting to compare. They will also be releasing a poll from Iowa.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2016, 08:17:06 am »

Americans have no one to blame but themselves if Trump wins.

A Trump victory would be a good reason to short-sell America.
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jaichind
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« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2016, 08:17:36 am »

One way or another this is a net swing for Trump from Quinnipiac last month in FL and PA.  In OH it seems to be the same as June for Quinnipiac.  Makes sense. June was a bad month for Trump and July seems to be shaping up to be a bad month for Clinton.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2016, 08:32:54 am »

It's pretty funny to see Johnson and Stein doing nearly as well as Trump among young voters.

NBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist will be releasing polls for OH and PA today at 5pm ET. Will be interesting to compare. They will also be releasing a poll from Iowa.

Very nice.
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