NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton tied in OH, +3 in IA, +9 in PA

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664
https://twitter.com/NKingofDC/status/753300478402801664

Pennsylvania white voters:
Trump, 40%
Clinton, 40%

Pennsylvania black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 91%

Ohio white voters:
Trump, 43%
Clinton, 33%

Ohio black voters:
Trump, 0%
Clinton, 88%

But blacks hate Hillary! They won't turn out for her because Obama isn't on the ballot! Trump has a great relationship with them! Muh Bobby Kennedy comment!

[Xing]

The PA number definitely looks too favorable for Clinton, but it's certainly not less accurate than Q showing her down 6. Polls are being wonky right now, we'll have a better idea where things stand in mid-August or so.

[Likely Voter]

This week's polling is proving to be a choose your own adventure for whichever narrative you believe, either Trump is surging or Clinton continues to have a lock.

But the net result at 538 is that Trump's chance to win is up 5% in the last week (to 33% in polls plus). 

It is probably even higher as there haven't been any new polls for some of the main battlegrounds in weeks (NC, VA, NH)

[Classic Conservative]

Trumps internal's showed him tied in VA. That's what politico says.

[dspNY]

Trumps internal's showed him tied in VA. That's what politico says.

He's down 5 in VA then if the best spin he can put on Virginia is a tie

[pbrower2a]

The Pennsylvania number seems off. I don't think Trump is only at 35

Rick Santorum got 41% of the popular vote in an embarrassing loss of a Senate seat in Pennsylvania in 2006.  That's the likely floor for a Republican Presidential nominee in Pennsylvania without a Favorite Son effect.   

Clinton will win this state with a strong get-out-the-vote drive that gets minorities (in Pennsylvania, that largely means blacks in Greater Philadelphia) who are never going to forgive him for failing to ditch David DuKKKe.

[Gass3268]

We are getting 4 more battleground state polls (CO, FL, NC, & VA) from Marist tomorrow:

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[HillOfANight]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.

[Sir Mohamed]

Looks more real. Honestly, I think PA won’t be as close as many think or as Republicans wish. My guess is that Hillary wins at least by five points, if not six or seven.

[nyquil_man]

This race is starting to feel more and more like a replay of 2012, albeit with a higher number of third party voters. All the talk about dramatically redrawing the map isn't amounting to much.

[Gass3268]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.

Just what I thought, Trump is getting killed in the Philly suburbs.

[dspNY]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.

Just what I thought, Trump is getting killed in the Philly suburbs.

That would indicate a map where the Philly burbs are bluer than 2012 and NE PA is slightly redder with the rest of the state looking the same save for Western PA possibly looking bluer. Since the Philly burbs are more populated that's how we get Clinton +9 in this poll compared to Obama +5 in 2012

[Devils30]

Hillary may win places like Chester by double digits and get over 60-62% in Montgomery, numbers that will offset Trump gains in places like Luzerne. Can see Trump underperforming in places like Lancaster too.

[pbrower2a]

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/714-ia-oh-pa-trump-and-clinton-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-ahead-in-pennsylvania/

Marist has released the crosstabs.

Cool regional breakdowns. Clinton 72-12 in Philadelphia, 55-26 in its suburbs, trailing 39-44 in NE PA, trailing 33-43 in Central PA, and trailing 38-43 in West PA. Don't have time to compare vs Romney's performance or 2012 Marist polls.

Just what I thought, Trump is getting killed in the Philly suburbs.

Educated white people recently split about 50-50 between Clinton and Trump in some polls.  Such would explain Trump doing worse in Philly suburbs than Romney did in 2012.

[CactusJack]

PA has been fools gold for the GOP for quite some time. 2004's close shave with Bush/Kerry duped the Republicans into thinking it was swinging their direction.

Hillary will win it with a similar result to 2012.

It happens every 4 years with Michigan. Some polls will come out in early October showing Hillary +3 or +4 in Michigan and the GOP will go into "OMG WE CAN WIN THIS" mode

Same with the Dems and Georgia

Florida and Ohio will be an absolute war this year. I think they split 'em in the end.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pennsylvania went from being 6 points more democratic than the country in 2004, to 3 points more democratic in 2008, to 1 point more democratic in 2012. Ultimately I think Trump carries it if he's winning the election.

[Ebsy]

Pennsylvania went from being 6 points more democratic than the country in 2004, to 3 points more democratic in 2008, to 1 point more democratic in 2012. Ultimately I think Trump carries it if he's winning the election.

So he's not going to carry it is what you are saying.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Pennsylvania went from being 6 points more democratic than the country in 2004, to 3 points more democratic in 2008, to 1 point more democratic in 2012. Ultimately I think Trump carries it if he's winning the election.

So he's not going to carry it is what you are saying.

At this point no, and my prediction map reflects that. But I'm not all confident saying that Trump can't find a way to win the election.