VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO) (user search)
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  VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO) (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO)  (Read 3778 times)
Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« on: July 13, 2016, 05:07:40 PM »

As expected.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #1 on: July 13, 2016, 05:09:23 PM »

So you're telling me that CO/VA are going to be D+4, while OH/PA/FL are all R+1 or 2? Okay then.

Yes. And it has been obvious since the last fall.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #2 on: July 13, 2016, 05:13:22 PM »

NC is not in play.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #3 on: July 13, 2016, 05:16:27 PM »


Yes it is. It has too many educated people for Trump to win and he is losing the demographic.

But it doesn't have the Virginia statists.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #4 on: July 13, 2016, 05:24:24 PM »

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #5 on: July 13, 2016, 05:33:27 PM »

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.


Trump has a chance in PA, but a +6 poll for him doesn't make him favored (especially since another poll shows Hillary up 9.) Also, you really don't think Kasich would have a chance there?

Kasich doesn't have the economic message that resonates with normally Dem voting working class whites and blacks.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #6 on: July 13, 2016, 05:48:25 PM »


Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

Due to his unique appeal, there is no need for Trump to be leading by any margin, though I agree that a +6 Clinton margin would make it difficult to imagine him winning PA.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #7 on: July 13, 2016, 05:58:19 PM »


Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

Due to his unique appeal, there is no need for Trump to be leading by any margin, though I agree that a +6 Clinton margin would make it difficult to imagine him winning PA.

This is the PA map in 2012 where Obama beat Romney by 5:



Where is Trump going to improve on Romney in the WWC areas? Romney already won those areas decisively 4 years ago. The area that Trump has to do better is the Philly suburbs and he's uniquely appalling there. Remember the Philly suburbs are largely educated and more diverse than the WWC T and Western PA

Well, I already explained this. He will get more votes from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The kind of voters he will get are normally Dem voters. Plus the turnout will be higher in Trump areas.
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Ljube
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,999
Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -6.09

« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2016, 09:51:11 PM »

Trump can't even win a poll from FOX?! Sad!

Another double digit lead in Colorado. So where is everybody who was concern trolling about how she would lose the state by 90+ points? (I know, polls four months before actual election don't matter, but she seems to be cleaning house in a state where some Atlasians thought she would lose by double digits.)

So if you put these together:
1. A Clinton national lead of 5%
2. Clinton tied or falling behind in OH/PA/FL
3. Clinton ahead by double digits in CO (Fox, Monmouth)

Does the battleground map now look like this?



Because as weird as that looks, that's what polling is telling me.


Is Georgia really a toss-up? The RCP map has it that way, but the poll-average has Trump +4. I dont think Georgia is in play (i would put in lean trump for now untill beter polls for Clinton will show up) and I doubt Arizona is. That said: these polls are far off from where Trump has to be. He's got to improve his overall numbers. Maybe a shift in Obama's approval ratings will help, i've noticed they are trending down for the last two weeks.

My main point is these polls are ridiculous.  If Clinton is up that much nationally, but even in FL/OH/PA, she must be gaining elsewhere, which actually is reflected in the CO/AZ polls.  I mean, it's feasible there is a northeast-southwest shift, but I'm not putting much stock into it until we see September polls that say the same thing.

GA is probably lean R; Clinton hasn't been ahead in any poll I can remember, but there have been a whole bunch of close ones.

I have already explained where Clinton's inflated numbers on the national level come from.

Trump is losing the Dem states big - bigger than Romney. California, for instance.

Trump also has much smaller leads in safe Pub states, such as Texas, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Kentucky, Georgia, etc...

But he has better results in the Northeast and the industrial heartland, like New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Connecticut, Maine, etc...
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