VA, CO (Fox): Clinton +7 (VA), +10 (CO)

[dspNY]

VA:

Clinton 44, Trump 37

CO:

Clinton 44, Trump 34

[dspNY]

Here's the full poll. The third party trial heats are hilarious

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-71316-clinton-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-virginia/

[dspNY]

Third party trial heats:

Virginia

Clinton 39
Trump 34
Johnson 10
Stein 4

Colorado

Clinton 37
Trump 28!!!!!!
Johnson 13
Stein 6

[dspNY]

Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Pennsylvania
Florida Florida Florida
Ohio Ohio Ohio

Trump could still lose with all 3 of those if Clinton wins NC

280-258 for Hillary

[dspNY]

NC is not in play.

Yeah, the polling shows Clinton with a solid lead there, so I guess you're right

[dspNY]

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

[dspNY]

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.

Romney pretty much maxed out the white working class vote in the T and lost the state by 5 points. Trump is going to get beaten far worse in the Philly burbs than Romney

[dspNY]

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.

Romney pretty much maxed out the white working class vote in the T and lost the state by 5 points. Trump is going to get beaten far worse in the Philly burbs than Romney

The assumption here is that Virginia will be slightly more Democrat (+1%) than in 2008 and 2012 and Colorado would be on par roughly with the 2012 turnout numbers (not 2008 or 2004, which trended way more Republican).

This would be in line with a roughly Hillary! +6 national result. Not implausible if one takes the Fox National poll numbers at face value.

Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

[dspNY]

Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

Due to his unique appeal, there is no need for Trump to be leading by any margin, though I agree that a +6 Clinton margin would make it difficult to imagine him winning PA.

This is the PA map in 2012 where Obama beat Romney by 5:



Where is Trump going to improve on Romney in the WWC areas? Romney already won those areas decisively 4 years ago. The area that Trump has to do better is the Philly suburbs and he's uniquely appalling there. Remember the Philly suburbs are largely educated and more diverse than the WWC T and Western PA