DSCC: Indiana Senate Bayh +21!!

[JRP1994]

So Trump +4 nationally is a junk poll, but Bayh +21 in a red state is the gospel truth? Lol

[Maxwell]

So Trump +4 nationally is a junk poll, but Bayh +21 in a red state is the gospel truth? Lol

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Indiana,_2004

well, yes. He's a monumental figure in the state. Even as GWB won Indiana with 60% of the vote, Bayh won re-election with 61% of the vote. I'm sure that's diminished somewhat but the guy is markedly different from national democrats and strongly popular in the state. I bet undecideds are lean Republican, as well.

[Kingpoleon]

This is definitely reason for concern, but a couple puzzling parts. Obama's approval is above water and at one point they say Bayh's name recognition is at 82%, while another place it says it is 54%. It's July and there is plenty to hit Bayh on, so I won't panic just yet. People don't have the frustration with Bayh that they had in 2010 because he's not an incumbent. Most Hoosiers just know that he was their popular governor and senator, then he resigned to "spend time with family."

I think most Hoosiers who know of him know he retired, not resigned, unlike you.

[Xing]

So Trump +4 nationally is a junk poll, but Bayh +21 in a red state is the gospel truth? Lol

Almost certainly not the gospel truth, but as I said earlier, even if this poll has a strong Democratic bias, it still means Bayh is ahead. And that's not surprising, given that Bayh isn't a generic D.

[Heisenberg]

Republicans need to make sure to Blanche Joe Donnelly in 2018 (which should be doable if Hillary Clinton is president) before he becomes entrenched in his seat like Bayh.

Don't worry, it'll happen, especially if Bayh wins. I bet many Republicans will especially not like having two Democratic Senators. Just as long as the nominee doesn't talk about rape.

[ElectionsGuy]

I don't believe Bayh is up 21, in fact I believe he'll end up being like Chuck Grassely, somebody who almost always over performs their party except for now in such a polarized environment. But for the purposes of the margin, there's no other way but to say this is at least a toss-up.

Sigh.

[RINO Tom]

But the GOP hacks told me this was still likely R! Bayh entered the race just for fun even though he knew he'd probably lose! Really, it's true!

If IN has two Democratic Senators, will it be a nice Midwestern state with a cool anchor city (with very affluent cities) and some pretty arras in the southern part of the state? ... And conversely, should they vote straight ticket Republican this year, will it be full of racist hicks?

[IceSpear]

But the GOP hacks told me this was still likely R! Bayh entered the race just for fun even though he knew he'd probably lose! Really, it's true!

If IN has two Democratic Senators, will it be a nice Midwestern state with a cool anchor city (with very affluent cities) and some pretty arras in the southern part of the state? ... And conversely, should they vote straight ticket Republican this year, will it be full of racist hicks?

I don't get your point here. Are you implying I think Alaska and Utah are full of racist hicks?

Anyway, Indiana is definitely the South of the North for sure, but they're not so far gone that a majority of the electorate sees the Democratic Party as an anti-white hate group and will refuse to vote for anyone under its banner, aside from the local county clerk/coroner/dog catcher.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Outlier, but concerning. One wonders if tying Bayh to his vote for Obamacare could drag him down in a presidential year the way it did to all those red-state Dems in 2014.