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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA  (Read 4117 times)
pbrower2a
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« Reply #75 on: July 15, 2016, 06:09:55 pm »

Unless one is the second coming of George McGovern or Walter Mondale, it would be practically impossible to do worse among Southern whites than did Barack Obama.  Nothing more need be said.
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« Reply #76 on: July 15, 2016, 08:58:31 pm »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #77 on: July 15, 2016, 11:01:14 pm »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.

Which ones are you referring to? All the Marist and Morning Consult ones have been entered.
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« Reply #78 on: July 15, 2016, 11:07:59 pm »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.

Which ones are you referring to? All the Marist and Morning Consult ones have been entered.

When I go to "Latest 2016 Election Polls" in the poll tool, I don't see these polls or the recent FL and MO polls either. Maybe it's something on my end?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #79 on: July 15, 2016, 11:25:35 pm »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.

Which ones are you referring to? All the Marist and Morning Consult ones have been entered.

When I go to "Latest 2016 Election Polls" in the poll tool, I don't see these polls or the recent FL and MO polls either. Maybe it's something on my end?

It's probably just because the Morning Consult polls have clogged everything up, since they were the most recent. If you click on the individual states, you'll see the Marist and PPP polls listed.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php
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« Reply #80 on: July 15, 2016, 11:31:10 pm »

Most of the recent polls haven't been plugged into the database yet.

Which ones are you referring to? All the Marist and Morning Consult ones have been entered.

When I go to "Latest 2016 Election Polls" in the poll tool, I don't see these polls or the recent FL and MO polls either. Maybe it's something on my end?

It's probably just because the Morning Consult polls have clogged everything up, since they were the most recent. If you click on the individual states, you'll see the Marist and PPP polls listed.

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php

Great. Thanks.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #81 on: July 16, 2016, 04:12:33 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #82 on: July 16, 2016, 04:33:47 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.
It was bound to happen and the Republicans were supposed to offset that with more Latino and some black votes
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Gass3268
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« Reply #83 on: July 16, 2016, 05:23:29 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.
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Holmes
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« Reply #84 on: July 16, 2016, 05:48:21 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.

Middle aged+ suburban white women will show a swing towards Hillary this year, yeah. More than Sanders would've seen (though he would've picked up more males on the other hand).
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #85 on: July 16, 2016, 05:48:57 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.
But if Hillary doing better than Obama with White Southern women and still have approximately the same margin than Obama over Romney, it implies, that she is doing worse in other group{s}.
So there is probably a (probably old white man) person who have been Democrat since Jimmy Carter that's voting for Trump this cycle. Or? :/
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Holmes
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« Reply #86 on: July 16, 2016, 05:53:37 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.
But if Hillary doing better than Obama with White Southern women and still have approximately the same margin than Obama over Romney, it implies, that she is doing worse in other group{s}.
So there is probably a (probably old white man) person who have been Democrat since Jimmy Carter that's voting for Trump this cycle. Or? :/

It's possible, though I don't see many Obama (2012) -> Trump middle aged+ white male Southerns existing. If Clinton is ahead by mid-to-high single digits in FL, NC and VA, the margin is larger than it was in 2012.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #87 on: July 16, 2016, 06:27:48 pm »

Q poll seems biased to Trump: JUNK POLL!!!!!!
Marist seems biased to Clinton: Trump is dead! The blue wall now includes North Carolina and Colorado! 1964 style Hilldog landslide!!!
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Holmes
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« Reply #88 on: July 16, 2016, 06:37:29 pm »

You should try a xanax.
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« Reply #89 on: July 17, 2016, 10:33:58 am »

Here are the links to the actual internals.

Interestingly, some states significantly trend Trump amongst "certain to vote" while others are a wash, so who knows what happens in a shift from RV to LV.

Colorado: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/COpolls/CO160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Colorado%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1

Florida: http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1

North Carolina http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NCpolls/NC160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_North%20Carolina%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1

Virginia http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/VAPolls/VA160705/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Virginia%20Nature%20of%20the%20Sample%20and%20Tables_July%202016.pdf#page=1
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #90 on: July 17, 2016, 06:12:04 pm »

The Republicans typically fare better in low-turnout elections and worse in high-turnout elections. Question: how effective will the Democratic GOTV drives be this year?

Nothing now says that a binary matchup between Clinton and Trump will be appreciably different from Obama vs. Romney in 2012.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #91 on: July 17, 2016, 06:45:31 pm »

The Republicans typically fare better in low-turnout elections and worse in high-turnout elections. Question: how effective will the Democratic GOTV drives be this year?

Nothing now says that a binary matchup between Clinton and Trump will be appreciably different from Obama vs. Romney in 2012.
Yes, but Trump IS quite untypical.

In Europa candidates similiar to him have understimated by polls. Almost always. And I would claim, that each of them was more normal than Trump.

Europeans are probably shier because of their past, but who knows? /:
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« Reply #92 on: July 17, 2016, 07:01:07 pm »

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.
But if Hillary doing better than Obama with White Southern women and still have approximately the same margin than Obama over Romney, it implies, that she is doing worse in other group{s}.
So there is probably a (probably old white man) person who have been Democrat since Jimmy Carter that's voting for Trump this cycle. Or? :/

It's possible, though I don't see many Obama (2012) -> Trump middle aged+ white male Southerns existing. If Clinton is ahead by mid-to-high single digits in FL, NC and VA, the margin is larger than it was in 2012.

Why not? In my family about half have swithe the part they're backing this election, many going in opposite directions. Trump is getting about 10-15% of the Obama vote in most swing states and Clinton generally gets 10-15% of the Romney vote. What makes NC so special?
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