Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 22, 2019, 02:00:47 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  Morning Consult polls every state
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: Morning Consult polls every state  (Read 3429 times)
Castro
Castro2020
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10,781
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 14, 2016, 09:15:25 am »

So, it looks like Morning Consult polled every state from April through June using 57,000 RV responses. The full results can be found from the link below, which has some obvious head-scratchers like Blue Georgia and Red Maine. These are the states that shifted from their last poll.

Img


https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/
« Last Edit: July 16, 2016, 12:07:16 am by Castro »Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,508


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 09:19:58 am »

To be fair, flip Georgia and Maine and that looks... reasonable.
Logged
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,388


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 09:21:42 am »

Damn they polled all 50 states lol.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,508


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 09:22:58 am »

Plus DC... though Trump getting 20% there is the least believable number on that page.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,926
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2016, 09:30:43 am »

Plus DC... though Trump getting 20% there is the least believable number on that page.

LOL. Maybe a typo. They meant 2.0%.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,275


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2016, 09:47:03 am »

To be fair, 51 polls means a couple are likely to fall outside of the MoE. There ought to be a couple of wacky results.

New Mexico being that close seems unlikely.
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,036
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2016, 09:49:27 am »

Not terrible all things considered, even though I still have no clue what a Morning Consult is.

It is a long data collection process from April-June though.
Logged
WI is Safe D
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,844
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2016, 10:07:21 am »

If there is a realignment, this is pretty in line with what I would expect it to look like (although GA without AZ is odd).

I'll be ready to declare a NE-SW realignment if polls support that in September.  If it does happen, I have a feeling it will be a one-off thing.  Or two-off, if Trump is running for re-election in 2020.
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,725
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2016, 10:10:10 am »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!
Logged
mds32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,068
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2016, 10:34:21 am »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.
Logged
NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,645
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 11:11:02 am »

Well, at least they tried to get every state. Some of those numbers are definitely laughable, though.
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,952
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2016, 11:22:05 am »

Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina? Maine going R?

I'm not using any of this except where I have no poll. And then... no.
Logged
Gass3268
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,758
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2016, 11:23:38 am »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

It has nothing to do with the pollster, but everything to do with their methodology.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,644
Dominica


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2016, 11:24:04 am »

Wow! Dominating!
Logged
nyquil_man
Full Member
***
Posts: 196


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2016, 12:32:45 pm »

Do we have any numbers on these polls, other than the 57,000 figure? The link only offers percentages. The poster adding them to the polling database is offering figures like 200 and 300, but I can't find a source for these.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,508


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2016, 12:45:02 pm »

Hey MDS... can you enter all of them, or none of them? Thanks!
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,898
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2016, 12:47:57 pm »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2016, 01:01:35 pm »

Remember when everyone made fun of me for suggesting that ME would be more Republican/competitive than NH? #accolades
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2016, 01:16:42 pm »

The most interesting results:

Alaska: Trump +21 (53-32)
Mississippi: Trump +18 (51-33)
Texas: Trump +5.3 (43.5-38.2)

Maine: Trump +2 (40.8-38.8 )
Pennsylvania: Clinton +0.4 (42.5-42.1)
Ohio: Trump +0.8 (41.7-40.9)
Wisconsin: Clinton +2 (41.4-39.4)
Florida: Clinton +0.5 (42.6-42.1)
North Carolina: Trump +3 (43.2-40.2)
Arizona: Trump +7.9 (45.8-37.9)

Iowa: TIE (40.1-40.1)
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 01:20:46 pm by TN volunteer »Logged
nyquil_man
Full Member
***
Posts: 196


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2016, 01:19:14 pm »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 01:29:30 pm by nyquil_man »Logged
nyquil_man
Full Member
***
Posts: 196


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -2.61

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2016, 01:52:28 pm »

Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 02:05:21 pm by nyquil_man »Logged
mds32
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,068
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2016, 01:57:17 pm »

Hey MDS... can you enter all of them, or none of them? Thanks!


I took a break I will get there not to worry!
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,898
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2016, 02:00:18 pm »

What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.

Cool, thanks.
Logged
WI is Safe D
Beef
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,844
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2016, 02:13:03 pm »

The most interesting results:
Quote
Wisconsin: Clinton +2 (41.4-39.4)

lulz.
Logged
IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,597
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2016, 02:13:40 pm »

New Poll: Washington President by Other Source on 2016-07-13

Summary: D: 48%, R: 34%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines