Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!
How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.
I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.
From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."
estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.
Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?
I don't think these are polls in the tradition sense, either. Morning Consult is using regression on a large, multi-state poll response database to try to model what the results might be in each state. The variables they chose include state age, education and income along with state-specfic economic variables, like unemployment. Morning Consult claims this is more accurate than actual state-based polling, based on a 2012 study, but it is not polling in the traditional sense. It might be the wave of the future, though.
Back in April, Morning Consult also separated state-specific interviews and stratified the data to create something that would approximate a state poll with special sauce, albeit one taken from January to April. But doesn't appear that they did that here. The April state special sauce poll results differed from the MRP estimates in some states.
I'm not sure that we should be including these "polls" in the database, but that's not up to me.