A year ago today, did you expect the GOP nominee to be Trump?
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  A year ago today, did you expect the GOP nominee to be Trump?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: A year ago today, did you expect the GOP nominee to be Trump?  (Read 1297 times)
#TheShadowyAbyss
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« on: July 14, 2016, 10:35:27 PM »
« edited: July 14, 2016, 10:39:21 PM by #TheShadowyAbyss »
With the RNC beginning in 3 days, did you expect Trump to be the General Election candidate?

I for one did not. I thought it was gonna be a Bush-Cruz-Paul-Rubio fight. I was wrong.
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swf541
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 10:36:35 PM »
Yes, and people i talked to at the time called me crazy.  I thought it would be Trump-Cruz-Paul.  well at least i got two right
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 10:39:12 PM »
I believed he was the obvious favorite with better odds than anybody else.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 10:40:39 PM »
Hell no. I figured that Jeb! had a ton of money and would run away with it. Or that someone like Rick Perry or Scott Walker would jump to the front of the pack.

Campaigns will study what Trump did. Like him or hate him, he has rewritten the book on how to get elected. It's not very often that someone who has not held elective office is a legitimate contender for POTUS.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2016, 10:41:31 PM »
Here's what the forum was saying about the race in July of 2015:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=215385.0
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2016, 10:41:50 PM »
Nah, not until the first debate. Then I knew it was meant to be.
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Vosem
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2016, 11:14:55 PM »
No. Trump wasn't the likeliest individual until after the debate between Iowa and New Hampshire, and the chance of his nomination wasn't greater than 50% until some point in mid-April.
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Just Passion Through
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2016, 11:19:57 PM »
I saw it being a Trump-Rubio-Cruz-Walker fight with Christie and Huckabee not far behind, and my gut telling me Trump would eventually be the nominee.  Not an awful prediction, I think. Tongue

Never saw Jeb being the nominee, though.  Wow.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2016, 11:23:20 PM »
I can say confidently that I did and I have the receipts to back it up.
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mencken
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2016, 11:23:35 PM »
I figured the fix was in for Bush, with Walker, Cruz, and Rubio all having outside shots. I vastly overestimated the establishment's competence at rigging the primary process.
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Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 11:31:36 PM »
I believed that Trump was going to tank in the first debate and that'd be the end of it.

My odds still had Walker/Bush at the top.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2016, 11:33:44 PM »
A year ago today? No.

11 months ago today? Yes.
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2016, 11:48:29 PM »
Quote from: The Mikado on July 14, 2016, 11:33:44 PM
A year ago today? No.

11 months ago today? Yes.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2016, 11:57:29 PM »
0/79. Basically all yes voters are liars.
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dspNY
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2016, 11:57:32 PM »
No. I thought the GOP would air out all of Trump's dirty laundry like they used to do when unpalatable candidates threatened to take their nomination. Hillary has exposed far more on Trump than everyone in the GOP put together and that is shamefully on the GOP
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 12:00:24 AM »
I don't think I thought Trump was the front runner until October or November.
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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 12:38:26 AM »
Trump won't be the nominee. I'm confident were gonna have a delegate fight.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2016, 12:39:01 AM »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 12:40:55 AM by ElectionsGuy »
Quote from: Rep. JCL on July 15, 2016, 12:38:26 AM
Trump won't be the nominee. I'm confident were gonna have a delegate fight.

For the record...  lol
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2016, 12:39:31 AM »
Quote from: Rep. JCL on July 15, 2016, 12:38:26 AM
Trump won't be the nominee. I'm confident were gonna have a delegate fight.
The conscience clause was voted down a couple hours ago.
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2016, 12:43:18 AM »
Had Trump hit 25 yet?  I was pretty sure it was gonna be Trump-Cruz-Rubio starting around the time Trump shot up above Bush.  I figured Cruz/Trump would duke it out and Rubio would win.  Turned out Cruz/Rubio duked it out and Trump won.
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2016, 12:44:14 AM »
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Spark
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« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2016, 12:45:59 AM »
I didn't. I thought that he wasn't serious and underestimated him. He really proved me wrong. Predicted it would be a moderate Republican but not the case this year.
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evergreenarbor
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« Reply #22 on: July 15, 2016, 01:14:59 AM »
Quote from: Lyin' Steve on July 15, 2016, 12:43:18 AM
Had Trump hit 25 yet?  I was pretty sure it was gonna be Trump-Cruz-Rubio starting around the time Trump shot up above Bush.  I figured Cruz/Trump would duke it out and Rubio would win.  Turned out Cruz/Rubio duked it out and Trump won.

That's what I thought would happen, too.
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Californiadreaming
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« Reply #23 on: July 15, 2016, 01:59:44 AM »
In short: Hell No!
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #24 on: July 15, 2016, 02:07:29 AM »
Nah, wasn't until Rubio's NH folly that I was certain.

11 months ago made me sure he'd be the runner-up, but I was sure the establishment would do what happened in 2014's Kansas Senate Race when Orman consistently lead and just go money-pumping crazy towards Rubio.

Instead they kept peddling Jeb for too long and Little Marco paper-tigered the whole thing.
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