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Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA  (Read 4050 times)
heatcharger
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« on: July 14, 2016, 11:02:34 pm »

https://twitter.com/mmurraypolitics/status/753801523096788993

CO: Clinton 43, Trump 35
FL: Clinton 44, Trump 37
NC: Clinton 44, Trump 38
VA: Clinton 44, Trump 35

Poll conducted from July 5-11.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: July 14, 2016, 11:04:27 pm »

Damn NC and FL numbers are terrible.
« Last Edit: July 14, 2016, 11:06:29 pm by ElectionsGuy »Logged
JRP1994
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« Reply #2 on: July 14, 2016, 11:05:10 pm »

In before someone calls these junk polls

In before someone unskews the polls
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: July 14, 2016, 11:05:19 pm »

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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #4 on: July 14, 2016, 11:05:36 pm »

These seem a little favorable for Clinton.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: July 14, 2016, 11:05:43 pm »

God bless the Sun Belt.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #6 on: July 14, 2016, 11:06:43 pm »

NC numbers and FL numbers seem a little to favorable to Hillary but the other two seem right
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #7 on: July 14, 2016, 11:06:45 pm »

B-b--but Quinnipiac and Rasmussen!
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heatcharger
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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2016, 11:07:32 pm »

Interesting that she's still got solid leads in all four states despite the polling being done in the heart of the Comey decision time period.
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Xing
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« Reply #9 on: July 14, 2016, 11:09:01 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #10 on: July 14, 2016, 11:10:36 pm »

Virginia is probably the best bellweather for the nation as a whole - NBC +9 and Fox +7 probably has this race as a high single digit Hillary lead. With these numbers I'd like to see Georgia - could def be in play now.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #11 on: July 14, 2016, 11:13:19 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: July 14, 2016, 11:13:54 pm »

BEAUTIFUL!!! Trump is getting destroyed in states where EDUCATEDS and BLACKS and HISPANICS get to vote!
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #13 on: July 14, 2016, 11:14:22 pm »

With third-party candidates:

Colorado:
Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 13%
Stein 4%

Florida:
Clinton 41%
Trump 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

North Carolina:
Clinton 42%
Trump 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

Virginia:
Clinton 41%
Trump 34%
Johnson 10%
Stein 2%

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/753803489692815360
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #14 on: July 14, 2016, 11:15:12 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #15 on: July 14, 2016, 11:15:41 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

I think Marist does have a slight D bias, which doesn't surprise me. I'm not going to say flat-out that Q is wrong, but they have consistently found more favorable numbers for Trump than other pollsters, especially in PA.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #16 on: July 14, 2016, 11:16:05 pm »

Downballot numbers:

FL: Rubio 47, Murphy 44
CO: Bennet 53, Glenn 38
NC: Burr 48, Ross 41
NC: Cooper 49, McCrory 45

Colorado is now SAFE D! BEAUTIFUL!!!
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fuck nazis
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« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2016, 11:17:27 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.
I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.
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dspNY
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« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2016, 11:17:53 pm »

Dems will win NC before OH this cycle. NC has a much higher number of African-Americans plus a higher % of college-educated whites
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Seriously?
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« Reply #19 on: July 14, 2016, 11:18:22 pm »

BEAUTIFUL!!! Trump is getting destroyed in states where EDUCATEDS and BLACKS and HISPANICS get to vote!
EDUCATEDS and BLACKS and HISPANICS get to vote in all 50 states and DC last time I checked.

These seem favorable to Clinton and outpacing how she should do in these states assuming the same methodology was used in the Clinton +5/Clinton +3 McClatchy/Marist national poll released this week.

It's just odd to me how Florida can be so all over the place depending on who polls it. It will be interesting to drill into the internals to figure out what differing assumptions these pollsters are using. Not that one is more "correct" than the other at this point, but modeling may explain the vast differences.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #20 on: July 14, 2016, 11:19:27 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.
I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2016, 11:21:58 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.
I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.
I doubt Florida is +5 in a Clinton +5 race. Obama beat Romney there by 1 point in a D+4 race nationally. Will Hillary actually outperform Obama by 3 points?
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dspNY
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« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2016, 11:23:38 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.
I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.
I doubt Florida is +5 in a Clinton +5 race. Obama beat Romney there by 1 point in a D+4 race nationally. Will Hillary actually outperform Obama by 3 points?

Florida could have an even PVI in 2016 due to a rapidly growing Puerto Rican population plus Jewish senior citizens who used to live in NY and love Hillary. She's a much better fit for the state than Obama
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heatcharger
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« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2016, 11:24:01 pm »

NC/FL do seem a bit too friendly for Clinton. I'll await some of the folks who took the Q numbers as gospel and mocked red avatars for not believing them to unskew this poll/call it junk.
I agree, I have legitimately no idea how this is going but doesn't this firm have a small D bias of .5% which is .2 less than Q?

The Q sample of Florida was straight out of 1980 with 80% white...NBC also conducts English and Spanish language live interviews. Makes a big difference in FL and CO polls.
I completely agree with you in Florida and its sample, it was biased towards Trump, but this poll is a little to big of a margin for Hillary if she is leading by less than 4 points or even tied in some polls.

Not really, with 3rd party options she is +5. I gather that's where her campaign thinks it is after the state field director went on a twitter rant to counter-act the Q poll results.
I doubt Florida is +5 in a Clinton +5 race. Obama beat Romney there by 1 point in a D+4 race nationally. Will Hillary actually outperform Obama by 3 points?

We also didn't think NC would vote more Dem than IA or OH did we? Dynamics have changed since 2012 and to your specific question I think Hillary's a better fit for FL than Obama ever was.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2016, 11:31:15 pm »

Virginia is probably the best bellweather for the nation as a whole - NBC +9 and Fox +7 probably has this race as a high single digit Hillary lead. With these numbers I'd like to see Georgia - could def be in play now.

If Hillary has an OH/PA problem, then Trump has a VA/NC problem, states with high minority and college-educated turnout.  Trump can say bye-bye to VA, and without NC, he almost certainly cannot win.  I hope we get a lot of polling this cycle out of NC, since I think it will be one of the closest states.

Florida is a polling mystery, which I guess shouldn't surprise us.  And while I think Clinton will ultimately win it, I guess we have to just consider it a toss-up for now.
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