NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Beautiful numbers

If I am not wrong, Trump have now 35.4% to win according to 538's 2016 Election Forecast. Up with 1.5 since yesterday due to Marist polls? :/

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Beautiful numbers

If I am not wrong, Trump have now 35.4% to win according to 538's 2016 Election Forecast. Up with 1.5 since yesterday due to Marist polls? :/

No, because 538 is now factoring in 3rd/4th parties into polls and that is tightening the odds.

Partly. But take a look to Florida for example. The race there tightened compared to yesterday, even though two +5 Clinton polls came out today. So the race has tightened, but Clinton probably still has a (comfortable?) lead.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Hillary is doing better than Obama with White Southern women ("Bill Clinton women", lol). That's devastating because Republicans can't afford to lose any White support in states like NC and VA.

Personal anecdote about this, my fiancée is from suburban Nashville. Her paternal grandmother has been a Republican since about 04, but she's voting for Clinton this cycle because Trump disgusts her. Also her half sister (fiancée's great aunt), who's been a Republican since about Reagan has said she's planning on leaving the Presidential line blank or not even going to the polls on election day. Her other grandmother has been a Democrat her entire life, but is the most excited she's ever been for an election because of Hillary Clinton. While this is only a personal anecdote, I can't imagine it's an exclusive situation.

But if Hillary doing better than Obama with White Southern women and still have approximately the same margin than Obama over Romney, it implies, that she is doing worse in other group{s}.
So there is probably a (probably old white man) person who have been Democrat since Jimmy Carter that's voting for Trump this cycle. Or? :/

[Erich Maria Remarque]

The Republicans typically fare better in low-turnout elections and worse in high-turnout elections. Question: how effective will the Democratic GOTV drives be this year?

Nothing now says that a binary matchup between Clinton and Trump will be appreciably different from Obama vs. Romney in 2012.

Yes, but Trump IS quite untypical.

In Europa candidates similiar to him have understimated by polls. Almost always. And I would claim, that each of them was more normal than Trump.

Europeans are probably shier because of their past, but who knows? /: