NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 02:43:44 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NBC/WSJ/Marist: Clinton up in CO, FL, NC, VA  (Read 7788 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« on: July 15, 2016, 06:15:53 AM »

I don't buy NC and maybe this democratic lean is because it's an RV poll.

Who knows who really will vote?

Just think about it: a 'likely voter' could be someone who hasn't missed a vote in seventy years -- not even for a local millage. That's as reliable a voter as there is, right?

That voter is at least 91 years old, and might not make it to the polls this year or any subsequent year.

Now what about the newly-registered voter this year? That could be a late registrant, but someone convinced that we have the most important Presidential election ever.

...Other 'likely voters' might be moving from one state to another. Someone once a likely voter in Wisconsin becomes a likely voter in Minnesota.       
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 06:09:55 PM »

Unless one is the second coming of George McGovern or Walter Mondale, it would be practically impossible to do worse among Southern whites than did Barack Obama.  Nothing more need be said.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 06:12:04 PM »

The Republicans typically fare better in low-turnout elections and worse in high-turnout elections. Question: how effective will the Democratic GOTV drives be this year?

Nothing now says that a binary matchup between Clinton and Trump will be appreciably different from Obama vs. Romney in 2012.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.017 seconds with 13 queries.