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Author Topic: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander  (Read 1288 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: July 15, 2016, 10:14:07 am »

Roy Blunt (R, inc.): 41%
Jason Kander (D): 38%

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Missouri continues to have one of the most underrated Senate races in the country. Roy Blunt leads Jason Kander only 41/38. That closeness is mostly a product of Blunt's unpopularity. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. One thing that's particularly striking is how poor Blunt's numbers are within his own party- only 49% of Republicans approve of the job he's doing to 26% who disapprove. Kander is actually winning more support now from Republicans (13%) than Blunt is from Democrats (10%) despite Blunt's far longer presence on the statewide scene. Kander is currently known to only 38% of voters in the state, so a lot of the direction this goes may depend on how voters feel about him as they get to know him better over the next 4 months. One thing Blunt does have working in his favor is that among undecided voters in the Senate race 47% are voting for Trump to only 30% for Clinton so if those folks all ended up voting the same party for Senate that they are for President it would double Blunt's lead to 6 points. At any rate this race probably is deserving of more attention than it's getting.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-leads-in-missouri-senate-race-gives-dems-opportunity.html
« Last Edit: July 15, 2016, 10:26:30 am by TN volunteer »Logged

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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 10:16:38 am »

Which means he's running 7 points behind Trump... I think he'll still pull it out but this has potential to be a sleeper race.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 10:17:21 am »

Looks like my prediction was pretty close. If Blunt really is underperforming Trump by 7, that is problematic for him.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2016, 10:18:21 am »

Always said that this race is a Tossup. Blunt is more likely to lose than Toomey.
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2016, 10:24:14 am »

Always said that this race is a Tossup. Blunt is more likely to lose than Toomey.

I wouldn't go that far, but the fact that Republicans want to put money here, coupled with small leads for Blunt does give me pause. Maybe Lean R is more fitting than Likely R, at this point.
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2016, 10:27:44 am »

Big trouble? PPP had Blunt +5 last year. Meh.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2016, 10:28:21 am »

Blunt is the embodiment of the Washington establishment.
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Holmes
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 10:33:25 am »

Kander's a surprisingly good recruit. He really is Blunt's antithesis. Young, proud war vet, not a career politician. If he can hammer that to a large audience in his ads and in the debates, he might have a chance.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2016, 10:33:43 am »

Obviously not surprising, but Claire McCaskill's approval rating is also underwater: 39/46 (-7)
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2016, 11:00:04 am »

Kander is a good candidate, but I highly doubt he wins. It looks like undecideds will break for Blunt as he shores up Republican support. I'm very surprised he didn't have a serious primary challenge this year.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2016, 11:09:24 am »

Blunt is going to win. Mcginty is going to win too.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2016, 11:20:14 am »

Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2016, 11:47:37 am »

Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
Agree. Republicans will come home to him. I wish they polled McCaskill vs. Wagner, but McCaskill's approval numbers are low, she's in trouble.
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2016, 12:43:17 pm »

Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
Agree. Republicans will come home to him. I wish they polled McCaskill vs. Wagner, but McCaskill's approval numbers are low, she's in trouble.
They're not notably lower than the approval ratings PPP finds for nearly any other politician. Blunt's are worse.
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2016, 01:37:25 pm »

If the DSCC was willing to put money into this race then Kander would have a shot.
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 03:50:48 pm »

'big trouble'? Nah, Johnson is in big trouble, Blunt just looks like he's in a tougher fight than expected.

Regardless even though its one poll him significantly under performing Trump is enough concern for this race to be considered a Lean R race.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 04:28:10 pm »

Great news!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2016, 10:06:35 pm »

lol @ Trump/Kander voters.
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2016, 11:57:23 pm »

lol @ Trump/Kander voters.

Anti-establishment vote, maybe.
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Miles
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« Reply #19 on: July 16, 2016, 12:36:56 am »

^ Well, Kander was winning some 60% Romney counties when he won his SOS race in 2012.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #20 on: July 16, 2016, 12:44:05 am »

^ Well, Kander was winning some 60% Romney counties when he won his SOS race in 2012.
The Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates combined got 3.7% of the vote, and Kander only won with a plurality. State-level races are far less partisan than federal races. My guess is the results of the poll have to do with undecideds. I think Blunt wins this narrowly in the end.
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AZ-SEN: Martha McSally
FL-SEN: Rick Scott
IN-SEN: Mike Braun
MI-SEN: John James
MO-SEN: Josh Hawley
MT-SEN: Matt Rosendale
NV-SEN: Dean Heller
OH-SEN: Jim Renacci
PA-SEN: Lou Barletta
TN-SEN: Marsha Blackburn
TX-SEN: Ted Cruz
WV-SEN: Patrick Morrisey
FL-GOV: Ron DeSantis
OH-GOV: Mike DeWine
TX-GOV: Greg Abbott
WI-GOV: Scott Walker
NH-GOV: Molly Kelly
NH-02: Annie Kuster
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