MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander
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  MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander  (Read 2322 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: July 15, 2016, 10:14:07 AM »
« edited: July 15, 2016, 10:26:30 AM by TN volunteer »
Roy Blunt (R, inc.): 41%
Jason Kander (D): 38%

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-leads-in-missouri-senate-race-gives-dems-opportunity.html
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 10:16:38 AM »
Which means he's running 7 points behind Trump... I think he'll still pull it out but this has potential to be a sleeper race.
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Xing
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 10:17:21 AM »
Looks like my prediction was pretty close. If Blunt really is underperforming Trump by 7, that is problematic for him.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2016, 10:24:14 AM »
Quote from: TN volunteer on July 15, 2016, 10:18:21 AM
Always said that this race is a Tossup. Blunt is more likely to lose than Toomey.

I wouldn't go that far, but the fact that Republicans want to put money here, coupled with small leads for Blunt does give me pause. Maybe Lean R is more fitting than Likely R, at this point.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2016, 10:27:44 AM »
Big trouble? PPP had Blunt +5 last year. Meh.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2016, 10:28:21 AM »
Blunt is the embodiment of the Washington establishment.
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Holmes
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2016, 10:33:25 AM »
Kander's a surprisingly good recruit. He really is Blunt's antithesis. Young, proud war vet, not a career politician. If he can hammer that to a large audience in his ads and in the debates, he might have a chance.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 11:00:04 AM »
Kander is a good candidate, but I highly doubt he wins. It looks like undecideds will break for Blunt as he shores up Republican support. I'm very surprised he didn't have a serious primary challenge this year.
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windjammer
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2016, 11:09:24 AM »
Blunt is going to win. Mcginty is going to win too.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2016, 11:20:14 AM »
Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2016, 11:47:37 AM »
Quote from: St. Alphonso on July 15, 2016, 11:20:14 AM
Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
Agree. Republicans will come home to him. I wish they polled McCaskill vs. Wagner, but McCaskill's approval numbers are low, she's in trouble.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2016, 12:43:17 PM »
Quote from: Heisenberg on July 15, 2016, 11:47:37 AM
Quote from: St. Alphonso on July 15, 2016, 11:20:14 AM
Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
Agree. Republicans will come home to him. I wish they polled McCaskill vs. Wagner, but McCaskill's approval numbers are low, she's in trouble.
They're not notably lower than the approval ratings PPP finds for nearly any other politician. Blunt's are worse.
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2016, 01:37:25 PM »
If the DSCC was willing to put money into this race then Kander would have a shot.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2016, 03:50:48 PM »
'big trouble'? Nah, Johnson is in big trouble, Blunt just looks like he's in a tougher fight than expected.

Regardless even though its one poll him significantly under performing Trump is enough concern for this race to be considered a Lean R race.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2016, 04:28:10 PM »
Great news!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 10:06:35 PM »
lol @ Trump/Kander voters.
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syntaxerror
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 11:57:23 PM »

Anti-establishment vote, maybe.
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Miles
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« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2016, 12:36:56 AM »
^ Well, Kander was winning some 60% Romney counties when he won his SOS race in 2012.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2016, 12:44:05 AM »
Quote from: Miles on July 16, 2016, 12:36:56 AM
^ Well, Kander was winning some 60% Romney counties when he won his SOS race in 2012.
The Libertarian and Constitution Party candidates combined got 3.7% of the vote, and Kander only won with a plurality. State-level races are far less partisan than federal races. My guess is the results of the poll have to do with undecideds. I think Blunt wins this narrowly in the end.
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