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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 62237 times)
cinyc
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« on: July 15, 2016, 03:37:02 pm »
« edited: November 08, 2016, 10:21:08 am by cinyc »

USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak Poll
Trump 43%
Clinton 40%

Weighted Panel of 3,000 Voters; MoE +/- 3.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-lat-tracking-poll-20160705-snap-story.html

This is new daily tracking poll, which debuted today.  Some info on the methodology:

Quote
The Daybreak tracking poll differs from traditional polls in two major respects. Rather than questioning a different group of respondents for each poll, the survey relies on a panel, currently consisting of about 3,000 people recruited at random to represent U.S. households.

The panel is part of a larger Understanding America Study conducted by USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research. The election survey is being done in partnership with The Times and USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics.

Because of the panel design, “we have the same people every time, so changes in the poll are really people changing their minds,” rather than the result of variations in who answers a particular survey, said Arie Kapteyn, the director of the USC Dornsife center, who pioneered the approach for the 2012 election while at Rand Corp.

It appears that they ask "Someone Else" instead of naming Johnson/Stein.  I can't find the numbers for "someone else" or the undecideds in the linked article.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 03:43:09 pm »

Who?
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 03:46:00 pm »

Who?

University of Southern California Dornsife College (their Liberal Arts division) and the Los Angeles Times, L.A.'s biggest newspaper.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2016, 03:46:48 pm »

Not sure about USC Dornsife, but LA Times polls have an A- rating by 538
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2016, 03:56:08 pm »

So is this going to be our thread for the daily poll?
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2016, 03:58:20 pm »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 04:12:33 pm by cinyc »

More on the methodology here:
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

They basically ask 1/7th of the panel who they are going to vote for and the percentage chance they will vote per day, so 450 or so people are requestioned every day.  Everyone theoretically gets asked once a week.  They then weigh the results based on likelihood of vote and demographics to come up with a new topline at midnight (presumably Pacific time) every day, using the previous week's results.  

Friday's results were closer than Thursday's, probably 42-41 Trump, but I can't say for sure because USC didn't provide real numbers, just a graph.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2016, 04:08:19 pm »

I guess this means Clinton will lose the election.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2016, 04:35:00 pm »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2016, 04:40:57 pm »

Now I guess Trump will win the PV easily, while losing the EC by more than Romney did.

/s
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2016, 04:43:48 pm »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R

Actually, it would be Safe R if Trump led by 1 point. The fact that he leads by 3 makes it Super Ultra Mega Rock Solid R.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2016, 04:45:41 pm »

LA times literally admits that this is the first poll from the pollster. Total junk.
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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2016, 04:46:31 pm »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R

Actually, it would be Safe R if Trump led by 1 point. The fact that he leads by 3 makes it Super Ultra Mega Rock Solid R.

Come on man, let's not overreact to a few polls. I wonder if Trump will win the popular vote by 3 but lose in a landslide in the Electoral College, though? The NBC polls definitely give me cause for concern! Maybe the election is still Likely D, after all?

Ratings change: Safe R --> Likely D  

Okay, I'll stop.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2016, 05:06:45 pm »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 05:34:11 pm by Seriously? »

Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. Sad

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R

Actually, it would be Safe R if Trump led by 1 point. The fact that he leads by 3 makes it Super Ultra Mega Rock Solid R.

Come on man, let's not overreact to a few polls. I wonder if Trump will win the popular vote by 3 but lose in a landslide in the Electoral College, though? The NBC polls definitely give me cause for concern! Maybe the election is still Likely D, after all?

Ratings change: Safe R --> Likely D 

Okay, I'll stop.
I am pretty sure we're in this different tranche of how they handle the likely voter or even registered voter electorate right now that is explaining the difference in the polling. Those clinging to a D+5 or D+6 model have Clinton with a lead. Those that are letting the electorate stay where it is based on the sample they get have Trump leading. More data points need to be made available before I can confirm.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2016, 05:09:04 pm »

This is like the RAND/American Life Panel tracking poll from 2012 that surveyed the same group of people.  Even if the topline is questionable, it could be good for tracking trends. 

I wonder if RAND itself is going to be doing it again this cycle.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2016, 05:21:56 pm »

So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #15 on: July 15, 2016, 05:23:15 pm »

LA times literally admits that this is the first poll from the pollster. Total junk.
actually, https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2012 The site of the USC polling indicates that this is the exact same team which developed RAND in 2012 and correctly predicted the 2012 election based on their own polling + panelists, so I'd wait to jump to calling something junk just because it doesn't show your candidate ahead...
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #16 on: July 15, 2016, 05:24:58 pm »

This is like the RAND/American Life Panel tracking poll from 2012 that surveyed the same group of people.  Even if the topline is questionable, it could be good for tracking trends. 

I wonder if RAND itself is going to be doing it again this cycle.
same team that developed that, developed this: https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
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Maxwell
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« Reply #17 on: July 15, 2016, 05:28:17 pm »

Questionable methodology.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: July 15, 2016, 05:33:58 pm »

So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.

No.  It's a real tracking poll called a panel survey that uses the same panel over and over again instead of finding a new random sample every day.  The panel is supposedly a representative sample of the electorate (with the pollsters even providing tablets and internet access to those without a computer).   There is no magic in recruiting a new panel every day if the original sample is representative - it just costs the pollster more money.

Panel surveys have been used for tracking polls in the past.  They're probably better for spotting trends than the toplines alone.

The other quirk that this pollster uses is weighing responses based on probability of voting instead of using a traditional likely voter screen.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #19 on: July 15, 2016, 05:35:49 pm »

lol the crosstabs are ridiculous junk as well. We'll see if this s[Inks] tracker improves at all as time goes on, but for now it is firmly in the junk category. The only interesting part for me is that the voters expect Clinton to win by a wide margin.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #20 on: July 15, 2016, 05:39:57 pm »

lol the crosstabs are ridiculous junk as well. We'll see if this s[Inks] tracker improves at all as time goes on, but for now it is firmly in the junk category. The only interesting part for me is that the voters expect Clinton to win by a wide margin.
I don't think that's a good narrative for Clinton. As this race stays closer than expected and Trump looks like he can pull it off, the undecideds may think it's OK to get aboard the Trump train.

It's usually the candidate that beats the expectation game that gets the boost in from the undecideds in the end.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #21 on: July 15, 2016, 06:06:30 pm »

Dubious methodology. Questionable randomness.
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2016, 11:54:23 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2016, 11:58:12 am by cinyc »

Today's numbers:
Trump 42.2%
Clinton 41.8%
(951 respondents)

Yesterday was:
Trump 42.1%
Clinton 40.9%
(1193 respondents)

http://www.latimes.com/politics/
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michelle
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« Reply #23 on: July 16, 2016, 12:02:57 pm »

That's a good trend. It went from Trump +1.2 to Trump +0.4. If this continues, then Clinton will win every vote on Election Day.
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Marianne Williamson
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« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2016, 02:12:07 am »
« Edited: July 17, 2016, 03:05:53 am by dfwlibertylover »

New numbers:
Trump - 42.8
Clinton - 41.7
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
based on 1,828 respondents
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