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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63244 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #225 on: August 20, 2016, 11:55:27 am »

You distinguish between his opinion and his model, don't you?
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!
Were're not the ones believing a poll that the makers have even said has a Republican bias.  But go on with your "dank memes".

538 believes (with some adjustments). I rather believe Nate than anonymous red hacks Smiley
Nate Silver also believed that Trump would just fade away.  He's not the most trustworthy. 
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #226 on: August 20, 2016, 11:58:35 am »

Guys, just let them cling to their junk tracking "poll" that doesn't even have a random sample and flies in the face of all other available evidence. For the Trumpets, it's like finally getting a piece of moldy bread after starving for a month. Tongue
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #227 on: August 20, 2016, 12:01:20 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2016, 12:04:26 pm by john cage bubblegum »

If you look carefully, Clinton had a huge jump exactly one week ago, which likely means she got an outlier (for this poll) day in her favor.  For a little while it looked this poll was coming in line with other national polls, but that favorable Clinton day has fallen off, and this poll is fully back to having its usual significant Trump bias.  

It looks like Trump got an outlier day on the 16th, so in four days expect to see a Clinton jump in the 7-day rolling average.
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Virginia
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« Reply #228 on: August 20, 2016, 12:14:13 pm »

If Trump supporters are staking all their hopes on both rampant poll unskewing and one or two polls with well-known issues & bias, then it's going to be rough on November 9th when reality sets in.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #229 on: August 20, 2016, 12:29:08 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2016, 12:38:52 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

If Trump supporters are staking all their hopes on both rampant poll unskewing and one or two polls with well-known issues & bias, then it's going to be rough on November 9th when reality sets in.
Sigh. Stop tilting at windmills Smiley
There are some indications that the race is tightening, for instance pew. But of course we need more evedence. I guess next week we'll get a bunch of polls from A pollsters.
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Virginia
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« Reply #230 on: August 20, 2016, 01:01:03 pm »
« Edited: August 20, 2016, 01:03:35 pm by Virginia »

If Trump supporters are staking all their hopes on both rampant poll unskewing and one or two polls with well-known issues & bias, then it's going to be rough on November 9th when reality sets in.
Sigh. Stop tilting at windmills Smiley
There are some indications that the race is tightening, for instance pew. But of course we need more evedence. I guess next week we'll get a bunch of polls from A pollsters.

You can think what you want, but the vast majority of data paints a very rosy picture for Clinton and Democrats downballot. We are not the ones desperately trying to rejigger polls to fit our narrative, and we have the vast majority of them showing us up by comfortable margins.

Further, if Democrats over-perform like we did in 2012, then a polling average of 2012 margins might be more troublesome for Republicans than you might think. I have every reason to feel confident in this, considering Trump has no ground game really to speak of and the RNC is already posting fundraising figures that are lower than 2012 - And this is when Trump is relying on them to basically do everything. With this sort of "arrangement", the RNC should be pulling in significantly more money, not less.

There is really no way to spin this. By almost every measure, Republicans are in awful shape right now and at least for the time being, there is little reason to think things will change. Can things change? Of course! Will they? Doubtful, given Trump's consistent record of ruining his own chances on a weekly basis with gaffes and offensive comments/arguments. Especially now given his commitment to being himself and hiring yes-men to encourage such.
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afleitch
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« Reply #231 on: August 20, 2016, 01:04:42 pm »

Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #232 on: August 20, 2016, 01:44:45 pm »

Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.
Exactly. And "pre convention" polling looks like best case scenario for Trump right now. What this poll indicates is that race got down from +8-10 (Khan) to +5-7 right now. But it might just be fluctuations due to adding of new panel members.
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King
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« Reply #233 on: August 20, 2016, 01:59:15 pm »

Clinton is only beating Trump 43-41 among 18-34 year olds in this sample. It's very clear that's where this consistent 6 point house effect toward Trump is coming from. There's no way he's going to come within 20 points of 18-34 year olds; hell, there's a chance he finishes third Johnson in this demo. 30-40 point loss is more likely.

Trash poll.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #234 on: August 20, 2016, 02:02:09 pm »

I want to believe it's a weak trend indicator. Guess we'll see if other polls next week show anything different.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #235 on: August 20, 2016, 02:15:59 pm »

Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.

Really if you look at the current polling averages, Clinton is back to her post-primary/pre-Commey numbers of around a 6-5% lead. Pre-convention numbers were not that great for Clinton, she was around 3-4%.

As long as we keep hearing stories of GOP officials in NC and PA freaking out about their own internal polls showing double digit deficits and RNC rumblings of having congressional running ads that say they will be a check on a President Clinton, I'm not worried.  
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« Reply #236 on: August 20, 2016, 09:31:31 pm »

Guys, just let them cling to their junk tracking "poll" that doesn't even have a random sample and flies in the face of all other available evidence. For the Trumpets, it's like finally getting a piece of moldy bread after starving for a month. Tongue
I don't think the blue avatars on here are "clinging to their junk tracking 'poll'" as you claim we are. We know what it means in context of the basket of polls. A Trump lead brings the aggregate back to roughly pre-convention levels for both sides.
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Hammy
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« Reply #237 on: August 21, 2016, 12:34:30 am »

I honestly don't see what's wrong with following the daily tracking polls, especially with the same pool--even if there's an R-bias, the -trend- is what's good to watch with these. If it's Clinton with a small lead followed by Trump with a small lead, then while Clinton is still very likely ahead, it could be an indicator that the lead has shrunken, and I do have to agree that the convention bounce is over--the polling has probably stabilized at this point unless there's a huge controversy from either side.
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« Reply #238 on: August 21, 2016, 02:15:54 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.
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Special K
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« Reply #239 on: August 21, 2016, 05:07:29 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.

Says who?
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #240 on: August 21, 2016, 05:23:33 am »

The most pro-Brexit polls ended up being the most accurate polls...
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #241 on: August 21, 2016, 09:04:09 am »

The most pro-Brexit polls ended up being the most accurate polls...
Ok, who cares.  This isn't Britan. 
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« Reply #242 on: August 21, 2016, 09:54:16 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.

Says who?
Ummm. The poll if you look at it? It's a 7-day rolling average. 8/13 was the biggest bump/lead Hillary day on the poll. It's 8/20. Mathematically 8/13 was wiped off the poll today, since it's 8/14-8/20 now. The number of respondents, same thing.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #243 on: August 21, 2016, 09:56:35 am »


Seriously made a clone to pat himself on the back. Sad!
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« Reply #244 on: August 21, 2016, 10:01:23 am »

Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #245 on: August 21, 2016, 10:04:27 am »
« Edited: August 21, 2016, 10:06:47 am by Doctor Imperialism »

This poll is just the worst thing, and the fact that RCP is shameless enough to include it in their average is irritating.

Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.

lol
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #246 on: August 21, 2016, 10:08:19 am »

Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.
I and many others would like to have opposition.  Not posters who just throw sh**t when presented with an argument.
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« Reply #247 on: August 22, 2016, 02:15:28 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/21) Trump +1.1%
Trump: 44.6% (-0.4%)
Clinton: 43.5% (+0.5%)
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« Reply #248 on: August 23, 2016, 02:12:51 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/22) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.7%)
Trump: 44.0% (-0.6%)

The lead goes back to Clinton.
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Mallow
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« Reply #249 on: August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 pm »

A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
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