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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63773 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #400 on: September 17, 2016, 10:20:28 am »

he just fell by .4 percent, where 1 week ago he hadn't even started to surge. This is a sign that we're returning to pre-surge levels.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #401 on: September 17, 2016, 10:43:51 am »
« Edited: September 17, 2016, 10:51:30 am by Little Big Adorable »

he just fell by .4 percent, where 1 week ago he hadn't even started to surge.
Cry

Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)
Smiley
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #402 on: September 17, 2016, 11:01:49 am »

This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #403 on: September 17, 2016, 11:30:44 am »

This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.
How come you didn't share you analysis in IA-Monmouth: Trump +8 thread? Huh

Or in FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 thread? Huh

Those are A pollsters Cheesy
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #404 on: September 17, 2016, 11:44:16 am »

This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.
How come you didn't share you analysis in IA-Monmouth: Trump +8 thread? Huh

Or in FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 thread? Huh

Those are A pollsters Cheesy

If you want people to take you seriously, maybe stop regurgitating whatever discredited fraud and GOP-operative Nate Silver tells you.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #405 on: September 18, 2016, 02:13:29 am »
« Edited: September 18, 2016, 02:40:08 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/17) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.7% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.2)

The beat goes on after a one-day break. Trump's 47.7% total is his highest-performing number in the history of the poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #406 on: September 18, 2016, 03:29:42 am »

Good news, but just might be lagging + noise. We'll need to wait 3-5 days to draw conclusions about the trend.
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michelle
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« Reply #407 on: September 18, 2016, 08:17:29 am »

Old Formula
Trump 51% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-2)

New Formula
Trump 48% (+3)
Clinton 42% (-1)
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JJC
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« Reply #408 on: September 18, 2016, 08:58:24 am »

It. Keeps. Going. Up!

Trump has increased his top-line on average +.6 points per day.

Based on my calculations, the Orange Overlord will be at 77.7% by election day!

My math is infallible.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #409 on: September 19, 2016, 02:38:12 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/18) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.8% (+0.1)
Clinton: 41.1% (+0.1)

Both candidates gain .1%. Trump's number is a new high.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #410 on: September 19, 2016, 02:58:06 am »
« Edited: September 19, 2016, 04:21:21 am by StatesPoll »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/18) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.8% (+0.1)
Clinton: 41.1% (+0.1)

Both candidates gain .1%. Trump's number is a new high.


Obama: Would be 'personal insult' to legacy if black voters don't back Clinton (CNN)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/17/politics/obama-black-congressional-caucus/

Despite of Obama's racism.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Black: Hillary 70.9% | TRUMP 20.1%(!)   <-> 2012:  Obama 93% | Romney 6% (+87% margins)
Hispanic: Hillary 55.1% | TRUMP 31.6% <-> 2012: Obama 72% | Romney 27% (+45% margins)
White: TRUMP 56.0% | Hillary 32.7%  <-> 2012: Obama 39% | Romney 59% (+20% margins)

Trumpís support among Black: 20.1% (LA Times Tracking 9/12-9/18)
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #411 on: September 19, 2016, 05:28:55 am »

Looks like whatever bizarre bump happened in the African American numbers is straightening itself out. I don't get why the poll behaves this way (you'd think you'd see movement among whites as well) but whatever.
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #412 on: September 19, 2016, 02:34:23 pm »

Old Formula Trump +6
Clinton 42% (+2)
Trump 48% (-3)

New Formula Trump +4
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)

One of the reasons for a huge Trump lead is a sudden lack of enthusiasm among Clinton supporters, who have generally been more enthusiastic than Trump supporters throughout the campaign. The good news (if you want Clinton to win) is that enthusiasm suddenly increased yesterday. It may be statistical noise, or it could be a sign of future trends. This should be something to keep an eye on as this poll continues to change. Changes in enthusiasm appear to affect the black vote more than anything else as both times Trump jumped and Clinton fell in the black vote, either enthusiasm for Trump shot up (like the first time) or Clinton enthusiasm fell (like this time).
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Seriously?
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« Reply #413 on: September 20, 2016, 02:14:14 am »
« Edited: September 20, 2016, 02:59:54 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/19) Trump +5.4%
Trump: 47.1% (-0.7%)
Clinton: 41.7% (+0.6%)

Today was the day you'd expect the bounce to start receding as last Monday was Trump's biggest jump. Clinton regained quite a bit (net 1.3%), but not nearly as much as Trump gained last Monday (net 3.1%).
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #414 on: September 20, 2016, 05:25:08 am »

Old Formula Clinton +2
Clinton 45% (+3)
Trump 43% (-5)

New Formula Tie
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 44% (-4)

Clinton supporters now lead in enthusiasm again and Trump falls with Black voters.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #415 on: September 20, 2016, 06:53:46 am »

It begins.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #416 on: September 21, 2016, 04:18:52 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/20) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.8%)
Clinton: 42.2% (+0.5%)
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President Johnson
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« Reply #417 on: September 21, 2016, 04:57:55 am »

The trend continues. Trump is in decline again.
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #418 on: September 21, 2016, 05:13:16 am »

Old Formula Clinton +3
Clinton 45% (=)
Trump 42% (-1)

New Formula Clinton +1
Clinton 44% (=)
Trump 43% (-1)
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Panda Express
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« Reply #419 on: September 21, 2016, 06:41:05 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/20) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.8%)
Clinton: 42.2% (+0.5%)

Excellent. That's another $200 profit for me on the weekly PredictIt market.
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Simfan34
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« Reply #420 on: September 21, 2016, 07:47:39 am »
« Edited: September 21, 2016, 05:44:33 pm by Simfan34 »

Despite its immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #421 on: September 21, 2016, 08:00:21 am »

Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.
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Mallow
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« Reply #422 on: September 21, 2016, 08:11:21 am »

Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.

That's what I've been trying to say this whole time Tongue

It's the classic illustration of precision vs. accuracy. The poll seems like it may be highly precise, and consistently inaccurate. It's like trying to hit the center of the dart board, but always being two inches down and to the left. But as long as you know that the bias is consistent, you can just correct for that bias and then you have highly valuable, useful information.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #423 on: September 21, 2016, 08:15:12 am »

Yes, the poll serves a broad purpose and has shown the trends - I just don't want it included in aggregates when it's SO off.
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Mallow
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« Reply #424 on: September 21, 2016, 08:26:29 am »

Yes, the poll serves a broad purpose and has shown the trends - I just don't want it included in aggregates when it's SO off.

I think it needs to be "bias-corrected" before being included in an aggregate, but then only if you bias-correct all polls in a similar manner. I agree that simply "throwing it in the average" when it clearly has such a strong bias is not the way to go.
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