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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63828 times)
michelle
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« Reply #450 on: September 26, 2016, 05:25:40 am »

Old Formula Trump +3
Trump 46% (-7)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula Trump +4
Trump 46% (-5)
Clinton 42% (+4)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #451 on: September 27, 2016, 02:18:28 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/26) Trump +3.5%
Trump: 46.2% (-0.1%)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3%)

Obviously, no real debate movement either way tonight. If anything, it starts hitting tomorrow.
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michelle
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« Reply #452 on: September 27, 2016, 05:27:43 am »

I'm switching entirely to the new formula after the first debate.

9/26 Trump +2
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 44% (+2)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #453 on: September 28, 2016, 02:36:26 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/27) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton: 42.6% (-0.1%)

Slight advantage Trump after Day 1 of post-debate panel is surveyed.
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StatesPoll
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« Reply #454 on: September 28, 2016, 03:49:55 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/27) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton: 42.6% (-0.1%)

Slight advantage Trump after Day 1 of post-debate panel is surveyed.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (9/21-9/27)
Black: TRUMP 18.2% | Hillary 74.3%

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
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michelle
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« Reply #455 on: September 28, 2016, 02:02:35 pm »

9/27 Trump +5
Trump 48% (+2)
Clinton 43% (-1)

I'll wait a few days for post-debate analysis. Today could be the result of a pro-Clinton day rolling off the average (Trump gained .5 today, losing .8 last week). And I'd like to thank States Poll for pointing out why this bump may not necessarily be true, and correcting the LA Times by showing that Trump only has one African-American.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #456 on: September 29, 2016, 02:31:46 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/28) Trump +3.8%
Trump: 46.7% (--%)
Clinton: 42.9% (+0.3%)
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michelle
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« Reply #457 on: September 29, 2016, 05:12:00 am »

9/28 Trump +2
Trump 46% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+1)
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #458 on: September 29, 2016, 08:42:41 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/28) Trump +3.8%
Trump: 46.7% (--%)
Clinton: 42.9% (+0.3%)

Not bad considering the day that dropped was one of Clinton's best in recent weeks.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #459 on: September 30, 2016, 02:26:25 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/29) Trump +5.6%
Trump: 47.3% (+0.6%)
Clinton: 41.7% (-1.2%)

A Trump bounce appears to have emerged.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #460 on: September 30, 2016, 02:27:31 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/29) Trump +5.6%
Trump: 47.3% (+0.6%)
Clinton: 41.7% (-1.2%)

A Trump bounce appears to have emerged.

Lol
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #461 on: September 30, 2016, 02:38:22 am »

I am laughing at this poll.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #462 on: September 30, 2016, 02:39:07 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #463 on: September 30, 2016, 02:42:22 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Because this time it wouldn't different ... something something liberals
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #464 on: September 30, 2016, 02:49:00 am »

since there is no practical reason why he should have soared, i guess this is the new normal....or at least it suggests that republicana...who are as we all know overrepresented in the LA poll...can't be shamed enough anymore...^^
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #465 on: September 30, 2016, 03:03:23 am »

That was a bit unexpected.
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #466 on: September 30, 2016, 03:06:41 am »

Republicans could nominate Hitler and they'd be more supportive of him when he'd speak his evil crap. Truly a evil party.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #467 on: September 30, 2016, 03:19:49 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Well, someone ought to play the role of poll-truther now that JJ and krazey left Atlas.
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dspNY
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« Reply #468 on: September 30, 2016, 04:19:34 am »

This thread should be locked because it's obvious this poll is a joke
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afleitch
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« Reply #469 on: September 30, 2016, 04:21:34 am »

Apparently Trump's widest margin amongst age groups is now the under 34's.
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JJC
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« Reply #470 on: September 30, 2016, 04:24:17 am »

Not good for Hillary.

Trump is literally .5% away in FL from taking the EV lead according to RCP. If Hillary can't open a lead after a 'bad' debate for Trump then she's in big trouble.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #471 on: September 30, 2016, 05:19:57 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Well, someone ought to play the role of poll-truther now that JJ and krazey left Atlas.

JJ is actually back.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #472 on: September 30, 2016, 05:47:02 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
Obnoxious much? What are you doing here after 2014?

People are permitted to interpret data differently. I am growing tired of how a bunch of obnoxious brownshirts you red avatars are because I don't agree with you and your crooked candidate and your narratives, which are not based in reality.

70% of you red hacks had Hillary up 10 and the election over in August. And who was the one saying it would be close? Yes. This "embarrassed" blue avatar. Who was right?

I rest my case.
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afleitch
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« Reply #473 on: September 30, 2016, 06:16:12 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
Obnoxious much? What are you doing here after 2014?

People are permitted to interpret data differently. I am growing tired of how a bunch of obnoxious brownshirts you red avatars are because I don't agree with you and your crooked candidate and your narratives, which are not based in reality.

70% of you red hacks had Hillary up 10 and the election over in August. And who was the one saying it would be close? Yes. This "embarrassed" blue avatar. Who was right?

I rest my case.

Then stop pretending you objectively understand polling.

Obama's internal polling data never had him behind on the national vote throughout the whole campaign. Neither did the Pollster polling average for that matter (in part because of how it vetted the polls going into the model) At this stage in 2012, Obama had a 2.8 lead. This was at the time of the first debate poll dive and his lead fell. Pollster also didn't show an Obama recovery after the debates; more of a flatline and then a recovery in the final few days. Obama's internal polling found the same thing, but at a higher baseline; dipping to 52% after the first debate and not really moving.

So far Clinton has also always been ahead with Pollster and currently has a 4.5 lead. It's a 3.3 lead on the multiple candidates tracker too. She is doing better than Obama in terms of her national lead at this stage of the campaign

It may well be close, if the end result is close. But 2012 was considered a close race until after the election it was accepted it was never a close race at all.



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Seriously?
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« Reply #474 on: September 30, 2016, 06:34:41 am »
« Edited: September 30, 2016, 07:04:20 am by Seriously? »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
Obnoxious much? What are you doing here after 2014?

People are permitted to interpret data differently. I am growing tired of how a bunch of obnoxious brownshirts you red avatars are because I don't agree with you and your crooked candidate and your narratives, which are not based in reality.

70% of you red hacks had Hillary up 10 and the election over in August. And who was the one saying it would be close? Yes. This "embarrassed" blue avatar. Who was right?

I rest my case.

Then stop pretending you objectively understand polling.

Obama's internal polling data never had him behind on the national vote throughout the whole campaign. Neither did the Pollster polling average for that matter (in part because of how it vetted the polls going into the model) At this stage in 2012, Obama had a 2.8 lead. This was at the time of the first debate poll dive and his lead fell. Pollster also didn't show an Obama recovery after the debates; more of a flatline and then a recovery in the final few days. Obama's internal polling found the same thing, but at a higher baseline; dipping to 52% after the first debate and not really moving.

So far Clinton has also always been ahead with Pollster and currently has a 4.5 lead. It's a 3.3 lead on the multiple candidates tracker too. She is doing better than Obama in terms of her national lead at this stage of the campaign

It may well be close, if the end result is close. But 2012 was considered a close race until after the election it was accepted it was never a close race at all.
I understand polling just fine. I do not subscribe to the pollster theory though. Fivethirtyeight or RCP, not a mouthpiece of the left.

You hacks just have your panties in a wad because I sarcastically stated that there was a Trump bounce here, just like you do with every pro-Hillary poll that comes out. It's comical how vitriolic the response was.
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