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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63072 times)
Gass3268
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« Reply #50 on: July 24, 2016, 02:20:02 pm »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
No, I can't find any

Well if they are accurate then it is scary for Democrats because the RNC by any objective opinion was a disaster.

Did you really expect for Trump not to get at least a small bump from his convention?
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #51 on: July 24, 2016, 02:21:16 pm »

At least he can reach his high ceiling of 45% again. If he can break that and reach closer to 50% by next week, then it'll be high alert at the DNC
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #52 on: July 24, 2016, 06:13:42 pm »

https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #53 on: July 25, 2016, 02:43:12 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/24):
Trump - 45 (+/-)
Clinton - 41 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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Ebsy
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« Reply #54 on: July 25, 2016, 03:51:37 am »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 04:00:43 am by Ebsy »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #55 on: July 25, 2016, 05:21:51 am »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
well I mean it's basically the same thing as the CNN poll so...
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #56 on: July 25, 2016, 05:39:59 am »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.
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cinyc
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« Reply #57 on: July 25, 2016, 09:54:58 am »

7/24: Trump 45.4, Clinton 41.3 for Trump +4.
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Chaddyr23
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« Reply #58 on: July 25, 2016, 03:22:19 pm »

Woah, how is 'other ethnicity' a Trump demographic?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #59 on: July 25, 2016, 09:41:49 pm »



This poll is METHODOLOGICALLY a clone of a poll run by the Rand Corporation in 2012.

The Rand poll did VERY well - their final poll has Obama +4, and the actual result was Obama +3.9.

Two questions:

Did Rand just "get lucky" in 2012? (Zogby did well in 1996, and Rasmussen was awesome in 2004, so one swallow does not spring make)

The Rand Corporation is anal retentive/obsessive compulsive on quality control, is USC in the same league?

This is a very interesting, but ultimately unproven polling methodology.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #60 on: July 25, 2016, 09:52:00 pm »

So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.

In 2012 The Rand Corporation poll predicted Obama +4, and the actual result was Obama + 3.9

This is a VERY serious methodology.  The Rand corporation has had 32 (!) persons associated with the company win various Nobel prizes for everything from economics to physics.

I have questions if USC can match Rand in terms of anal retentive/obsessive compulsive validation and quality control, but this is indeed a VERY serious poll.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #61 on: July 25, 2016, 09:57:36 pm »

Dubious methodology. Questionable randomness.

This poll is different, but most things touched by the Rand Corporation are well outside the box.

For the record... In 2012 Rand predicted Obama +4.0% - The actual was +3.9$

It could have simply been beginner's luck, but the Rand corporation is a VERY serious research organization - Staff members at Rand have won 32 (!) Nobel Prizes over the years.
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #62 on: July 25, 2016, 10:07:26 pm »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.

7 day rolling actually....
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #63 on: July 26, 2016, 02:15:34 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/25):
Trump - 46.3 (+.9)
Clinton - 41.1 (-.2)
(#) denotes change from previous day


3 point bounce for Trump and 1 point drop for Clinton in last 7 days
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #64 on: July 26, 2016, 11:48:12 am »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.

7 day rolling actually....

     So yeah, outliers are heavily suppressed in the numbers here.
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michelle
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« Reply #65 on: July 26, 2016, 02:09:13 pm »

Demographics (shrinking leads are italicized, majority leads are bolded):

Overall: Trump +5

Age
18-34: Trump +2
35-64: Trump +4
65+: Trump +11

Education
HS or less: Trump +15
some college: Trump +12
BA+: Clinton +10

Household Income
$0-35k: Clinton +7
$35-75k: Trump +17
$75k+: Trump +3

Race
White: Trump +24
African American: Clinton +79
Other ethnicity: Trump +28
Hispanic: Clinton +22

Gender
Female: Clinton +6
Male: Trump +16
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Ebsy
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« Reply #66 on: July 26, 2016, 02:17:51 pm »

Looking at the demographics seem to indicate they have done a very poor job constructing a representative sample.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #67 on: July 26, 2016, 02:22:34 pm »

Lol Trump does not lead by more among Whites than Clinton does among Hispanics.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #68 on: July 26, 2016, 02:23:30 pm »

This is one of the worst polls taken in a while.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #69 on: July 26, 2016, 02:28:26 pm »

It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.
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Mallow
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« Reply #70 on: July 26, 2016, 02:31:56 pm »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.

7 day rolling actually....

So the "July 25th" result is really centered on July 22nd. That explains why the convention bounce didn't apparently start until after the convention.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #71 on: July 26, 2016, 02:42:24 pm »

It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.

Well if we assume an MOE of +-4%, we can add 4 to Clinton and subtract 4 from Trump. Ok now Clinton's leading by 3 so we're looking good so far but we're not done yet. If we assume 95% confidence, we can take another 5% confidence points off Trump and Clinton's now leading by 8 points. So really, this poll says Clinton leads by 8.

-StatesPoll's evil twin brother
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #72 on: July 26, 2016, 02:55:52 pm »

It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.

They real should teach statistics, or at least math and critical thinking in the schools.

Why did they stop doing that BTW?
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The Vorlon
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« Reply #73 on: July 26, 2016, 03:04:13 pm »

Dubious methodology. Questionable randomness.

A factual point of information:

The Rand Corporation (or the "Bland Corporation" for you Dr. Strangelove fans) ran a poll based upon essentially identical methodology in 2012 and came within 0.1% of predicting the actual margin of victory.  Rand had Obama +4.0, the actual was Obama +3.9

The Rand Corporation has also had 32 members of it's staff win the Nobel Prize in various disciplines over the years.  This may be an internet based poll but it's about as far from John Zogby as you can get.  RAnd is not a bunch of underfunded lightweights to put it very mildly.

The methodology is new, and unproven over a long term series of races,  so I would personally put this poll under the "worth watching, but unproven" category - but that being said this is a VERY serious and legitimate effort to get it right.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #74 on: July 27, 2016, 02:14:56 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/26):
Trump - 47 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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