USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/8) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.5% (--)
Trump: 44.3% (+0.9)

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/9) Clinton +1.0%
Clinton: 44.8% (+0.3)
Trump: 43.8% (-0.5)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/10) Clinton +1.4%
Clinton: 45.0% (+0.2)
Trump: 43.6% (-0.2)

[Seriously?]

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.

I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.

Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

[Seriously?]

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.

I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.

Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.

Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/11) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.4% (-0.6)
Trump: 44.1% (+0.5)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/12) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.8% (+1.7)
Clinton: 42.8% (-1.4)

Huge jump for Trump. It bodes watching the other two tracking polls to see if this is a direct impact of Clinton's "medical incident"/the "basket of deplorables" comment or just some statistical noise.

Given the nature of how this particular poll is conducted, it could very well be the Clinton health scare that pushed such a radical change in one day. It's a panel of the same voters for the most part. About 70 people were added to the sample since Sunday.

Digging deeper into the poll, Trump's intensity was up by almost a point. As to the question of who would win, Trump jumped almost a point, while Hillary fell almost a point. Hillary still is the heavy favorite 52.2-43.3.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

That was a joke. Just like how big of a joke it is that the Hillary campaign is attacking a fu#$ng cartoon. But then again... Democrats seem to have a penchant for blaming filmmakers...

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/14) Trump +5.9%
Trump: 47.2% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.3% (-0.7)

The free fall continues.

[Seriously?]

The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race

Unless there's a Nixon-Kennedy moment, debates generally do little in the grand scheme of things. The biggest challenge for this poll will be next Monday, when the Monday folks that really through this survey off get re-interviewed.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.4%
Trump: 47.4% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.3)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.0%
Trump: 47.2% (-0.2)
Clinton: 41.2% (+0.2)

The free fall has stopped. Now it's time to see if there will be a correction starting next Monday.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/17) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.7% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.2)

The beat goes on after a one-day break. Trump's 47.7% total is his highest-performing number in the history of the poll.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/18) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.8% (+0.1)
Clinton: 41.1% (+0.1)

Both candidates gain .1%. Trump's number is a new high.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/19) Trump +5.4%
Trump: 47.1% (-0.7%)
Clinton: 41.7% (+0.6%)

Today was the day you'd expect the bounce to start receding as last Monday was Trump's biggest jump. Clinton regained quite a bit (net 1.3%), but not nearly as much as Trump gained last Monday (net 3.1%).

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/20) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.8%)
Clinton: 42.2% (+0.5%)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/21) Trump +2.4%
Trump: 45.4% (-0.9%)
Clinton: 43.0% (+0.8%)

The bounce is clearly fading.

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No update?

Oddly, no. They haven't updated yesterday's numbers. I think they tried to, but somehow swung and missed. Neither the LA Times or the USC site has updated numbers yet.

[Seriously?]

No update?

Oddly, no. They haven't updated yesterday's numbers. I think they tried to, but somehow swung and missed. Neither the LA Times or the USC site has updated numbers yet.

God, I hope they're not messing with their methodology or something. Fingers crossed this is just a blip.

This happened once before, but the LA Times got the numbers out somehow.

USC updated the data files when they were supposed to at midnight PST, but they didn't contain the 9/22 data. I am sure once it's early enough on the West coast, someone will notice the error and they'll fix it.

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/22) Trump +1.4%
Trump: 44.8% (-0.6%)
Clinton: 43.4% (+0.4%)

Better late than never.

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USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/23) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+0.4%)
Clinton: 43.3% (-0.1%)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/24) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.4% (+1.1%)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0%)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/25) Trump +3.9%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.1%)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.1%)

[Seriously?]

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/26) Trump +3.5%
Trump: 46.2% (-0.1%)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3%)

Obviously, no real debate movement either way tonight. If anything, it starts hitting tomorrow.