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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63108 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #700 on: November 05, 2016, 11:08:17 am »

I can't believe we are still worrying about this junk.
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cinyc
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« Reply #701 on: November 06, 2016, 03:07:28 am »

11/5: Trump +5.6
Trump 48.2 (+0.2)
Clinton 42.6 (-)
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North Fulton Swing
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« Reply #702 on: November 06, 2016, 06:01:00 am »

Once this election is over, the L.A. Times and the University of Southern California need to disassociate with the joke of a "pollster". 
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #703 on: November 06, 2016, 06:02:27 am »

Does anyone know their demographics?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #704 on: November 06, 2016, 06:18:03 am »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

Eh, Gallup used to be seen as the a solute gold standard of the industry.  No one has ever thought that of the LA Times, and only diehard political junkies like us have even heard of its tracker.

Actually, I've encountered plenty of people who basically only know this poll because they get their info from the alt right media bubble.
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Wade McDaniel
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« Reply #705 on: November 06, 2016, 06:19:32 am »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

Eh, Gallup used to be seen as the a solute gold standard of the industry.  No one has ever thought that of the LA Times, and only diehard political junkies like us have even heard of its tracker.

Actually, I've encountered plenty of people who basically only know this poll because they get their info from the alt right media bubble.

How far off do you think it is?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #706 on: November 06, 2016, 07:58:31 am »

According to this poll Trump will do better among Hispanics than Bush did in 2004.
Seems legit.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #707 on: November 06, 2016, 11:32:55 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Image Link
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #708 on: November 06, 2016, 11:39:02 am »

Haha, before it was a Trump's African-American, now it is Trump's Latino-American? Cheesy
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Mallow
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« Reply #709 on: November 06, 2016, 11:39:39 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?
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Simfan34
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« Reply #710 on: November 06, 2016, 02:28:40 pm »

Does that young black guy in Ohio have a friend?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #711 on: November 06, 2016, 02:33:26 pm »

Does that young black guy in Ohio have a friend?

Illinois.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #712 on: November 06, 2016, 09:22:44 pm »

LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html …
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #713 on: November 06, 2016, 09:40:48 pm »


Makes perfect sense.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #714 on: November 06, 2016, 10:20:29 pm »


LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."
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Hammy
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« Reply #715 on: November 06, 2016, 11:03:56 pm »


LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."

Lol they just completely threw their tracking poll under the bus with that map.
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cinyc
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« Reply #716 on: November 07, 2016, 03:34:11 am »

11/6: Trump +4.8
Trump 48.0 (-0.2)
Clinton 43.2 (+0.6)
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Still couldn't quell the Bel
xingkerui
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« Reply #717 on: November 07, 2016, 03:40:15 am »

I wonder if this poll will end up being off by double digits, in the end.
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Lok
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« Reply #718 on: November 07, 2016, 03:59:21 am »

I wonder if this poll will end up being off by double digits, in the end.
Wouldn't be surprised if it did.
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Mallow
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« Reply #719 on: November 07, 2016, 10:10:18 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #720 on: November 07, 2016, 10:14:01 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?
Yeah. It would be ~Clinton +1-3
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jaichind
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« Reply #721 on: November 07, 2016, 10:17:09 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?
Bump. Does anyone know?

Doing the math it would seem to be.  If Latino is 12% of the electorate and we add a 30% swing for Latinos would lead us to go from Trump 48 Clinton 43.2 to Clinton 46.8 Trump 44.4 which seems to be in line with other polls.  Of course other polls seems to indicate that Trump is not THAT far behind in the Latino vote.  So if we go for a 25% swing instead it is Clinton 46.2 Trump 45.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #722 on: November 08, 2016, 03:21:59 am »

I guess that's the last we'll hear from them.

Trump       46,8
Clinton      43,6
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Hammy
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« Reply #723 on: November 08, 2016, 03:26:00 am »

Hopefully this is the last time they do this sort of garbage.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #724 on: November 08, 2016, 03:39:13 am »

this means something like....C+ 2-3.
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