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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 62247 times)
IceSpear
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« Reply #725 on: November 06, 2016, 10:20:29 pm »

LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html


Makes perfect sense.

LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."
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Hammy
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« Reply #726 on: November 06, 2016, 11:03:56 pm »

LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html


Makes perfect sense.

LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."

Lol they just completely threw their tracking poll under the bus with that map.
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cinyc
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« Reply #727 on: November 07, 2016, 03:34:11 am »

11/6: Trump +4.8
Trump 48.0 (-0.2)
Clinton 43.2 (+0.6)
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For Trump everything, for immigrants the law
xingkerui
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« Reply #728 on: November 07, 2016, 03:40:15 am »

I wonder if this poll will end up being off by double digits, in the end.
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Lok
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« Reply #729 on: November 07, 2016, 03:59:21 am »

I wonder if this poll will end up being off by double digits, in the end.
Wouldn't be surprised if it did.
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Mallow
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« Reply #730 on: November 07, 2016, 10:10:18 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #731 on: November 07, 2016, 10:14:01 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?
Yeah. It would be ~Clinton +1-3
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jaichind
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« Reply #732 on: November 07, 2016, 10:17:09 am »

Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?
Bump. Does anyone know?

Doing the math it would seem to be.  If Latino is 12% of the electorate and we add a 30% swing for Latinos would lead us to go from Trump 48 Clinton 43.2 to Clinton 46.8 Trump 44.4 which seems to be in line with other polls.  Of course other polls seems to indicate that Trump is not THAT far behind in the Latino vote.  So if we go for a 25% swing instead it is Clinton 46.2 Trump 45.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #733 on: November 08, 2016, 03:21:59 am »

I guess that's the last we'll hear from them.

Trump       46,8
Clinton      43,6
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Hammy
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« Reply #734 on: November 08, 2016, 03:26:00 am »

Hopefully this is the last time they do this sort of garbage.
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #735 on: November 08, 2016, 03:39:13 am »

this means something like....C+ 2-3.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #736 on: November 08, 2016, 08:35:40 am »

I guess that's the last we'll hear from them.

Trump       46,8
Clinton      43,6
So Trump+3.2? Sounds like an Obama 2012-style victory for Clinton...
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Lyin' Steve
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« Reply #737 on: November 08, 2016, 12:57:54 pm »

Really looking forward to the apologies from 538 and TCP for including this disgraceful poll in their estimations.
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