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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63053 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2016, 03:12:49 am »

I am not sure about this, but L.A Times had always
very accurate polls in the past.

Considering the LA Times was at lengths to point out that they're new and untested, I wouldn't invest too much into this.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #26 on: July 18, 2016, 01:45:59 pm »

This seems to be the first daily tracking poll. Once there are more we can convert this thread into a daily tracking megathread. Weekly trackers should get their own threads each week as each week is a new sample.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #27 on: July 19, 2016, 02:20:59 am »

new numbers:
Trump 43.3
Clinton 42.2
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #28 on: July 20, 2016, 02:14:40 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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Arch
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« Reply #29 on: July 20, 2016, 02:21:37 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Aren't his numbers supposed to be going up doing convention time?
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: July 20, 2016, 02:22:56 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Aren't his numbers supposed to be going up doing convention time?

It'll probably take a couple of days for his convention bounce (assuming he gets one) to become apparent.
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Buh her emails!
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« Reply #31 on: July 20, 2016, 02:38:22 am »

Damn she's catching up.
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cinyc
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« Reply #32 on: July 20, 2016, 03:36:06 pm »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

I see Trump 42.8, Clinton 42.6 if you're into decimals.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #33 on: July 21, 2016, 02:17:30 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.
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« Reply #34 on: July 21, 2016, 02:18:19 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #35 on: July 21, 2016, 02:19:12 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.

Better yet, it is happening, and people outside of the convention are having the appropriate reaction.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #36 on: July 21, 2016, 05:00:49 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.
No, it's just having the exact opposite effect that most conventions have on your numbers, as it appears in this poll.  We'll see if it translates into others as well.
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dspNY
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« Reply #37 on: July 21, 2016, 07:53:34 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.

The RNC is happening...Trump is getting a negative bounce/anti-bounce
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #38 on: July 21, 2016, 09:45:14 am »

Interestingly, this is probably a better reflection of "conversion" rather than "excitement."  A lot of bounce in polls from week to week is who feels more excited about their candidate, or angrier about the opposition, and will finish a survey. Not a whole ton of people honestly change their minds from week to week, but they do change their enthusiasm. This poll's structure is better at looking into actual preferences, since it's a panel. So, the GOP convention isn't just depressing GOP enthusiasm, it's also pushing Trump's voters to undecided/3rd party voters, and undecided/3rd party voters to Clinton as well.

Way to go Donnie!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #39 on: July 21, 2016, 01:56:20 pm »

They're weighting it by who they feel is more likely to vote, so perhaps the convention has been demoralizing Trump supporters.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #40 on: July 22, 2016, 02:14:37 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/21):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
However, Trump has retaken the decimal point lead, 43.4 to 43.2
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #41 on: July 23, 2016, 02:14:27 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/22):
Trump - 44 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #42 on: July 23, 2016, 03:50:49 am »

Trump landslide imminent!!1!1!!
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cinyc
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« Reply #43 on: July 23, 2016, 07:50:58 am »
« Edited: July 23, 2016, 07:52:42 am by cinyc »

If you heart decimals, it's Trump 44.2, Clinton 42.3.

By the way, for my headline, I've been rounding the difference, not the numbers.  So if it's Clinton +0.6, I say Clinton +1.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #44 on: July 24, 2016, 02:15:05 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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RJEvans
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« Reply #45 on: July 24, 2016, 07:43:41 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
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cinyc
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« Reply #46 on: July 24, 2016, 09:17:59 am »

With decimals, it's 45.1 Trump, 41.7 Clinton.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #47 on: July 24, 2016, 09:49:00 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
No, I can't find any
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RJEvans
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« Reply #48 on: July 24, 2016, 10:13:29 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
No, I can't find any

Well if they are accurate then it is scary for Democrats because the RNC by any objective opinion was a disaster.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #49 on: July 24, 2016, 02:15:06 pm »

I think they took the poll down. The links no longer take you to the daily tracker.
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