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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63278 times)
JerryArkansas
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« Reply #125 on: July 29, 2016, 09:19:25 am »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.
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Mallow
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« Reply #126 on: July 29, 2016, 09:21:28 am »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #127 on: July 29, 2016, 09:40:07 am »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
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cinyc
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« Reply #128 on: July 29, 2016, 10:10:05 am »

If you Purple heart decimals, it's Trump 46.7, Clinton 40.6,
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PaperKooper
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« Reply #129 on: July 29, 2016, 12:51:22 pm »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 
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Mallow
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« Reply #130 on: July 29, 2016, 02:16:54 pm »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 

Yeah I pretty much tuned out of the conversation when he said that...
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #131 on: July 29, 2016, 02:18:58 pm »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 

Yeah I pretty much tuned out of the conversation when he said that...
At this point, you seem like an idiot who wants to believe this damn poll.  So, I'll leave you in your "poll".

Also, they didn't have that when I first looked at this poll and threw it in the garbage.  Havent looked since.  But think what you want to think.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #132 on: July 29, 2016, 02:36:24 pm »


You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over, and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 

Yeah I pretty much tuned out of the conversation when he said that...
At this point, you seem like an idiot who wants to believe this damn poll.  So, I'll leave you in your "poll".

Also, they didn't have that when I first looked at this poll and threw it in the garbage.  Havent looked since.  But think what you want to think.
So you threw it in the garbage, because they did't have it [at the very start], but now, when they do have it, you don't care.

Ok!
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #133 on: July 30, 2016, 02:14:55 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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Gass3268
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« Reply #134 on: July 30, 2016, 02:16:56 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Movin' On Up!
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #135 on: July 30, 2016, 04:14:24 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Movin' On Up!
I believe this will put Clinton in the lead on the RCP national head to head average unless another poll comes out today that shows good results for trump.
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cinyc
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« Reply #136 on: July 30, 2016, 11:05:02 am »

Trump 46.6, Clinton 41.7, for those who Purple heart decimals.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #137 on: July 30, 2016, 12:01:51 pm »

They're doing a poll every day now?
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Arch
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« Reply #138 on: July 30, 2016, 12:02:20 pm »


This poll is trash
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President Johnson
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« Reply #139 on: July 30, 2016, 12:02:51 pm »


LA Times? Why? Because TRUMP is leading?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #140 on: July 30, 2016, 12:07:33 pm »

No
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Flake
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« Reply #141 on: July 30, 2016, 12:54:40 pm »


Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.
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Mallow
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« Reply #142 on: July 30, 2016, 01:18:57 pm »


Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #143 on: July 30, 2016, 01:23:17 pm »

So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.
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Mallow
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« Reply #144 on: July 30, 2016, 01:26:35 pm »

So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #145 on: July 30, 2016, 02:38:25 pm »


Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).
Yes. Trends!
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
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Icefire9
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« Reply #146 on: July 30, 2016, 02:46:24 pm »


Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).
Yes. Trends!
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
Interesting, that would be a 9 point bounce, right in line with RABA.
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michelle
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« Reply #147 on: July 30, 2016, 03:27:04 pm »

Using the LittleBigPlanet's equation above, I bring you yesterday's demographics.

Age
18-34: 51.2 Clinton, 42.3 Trump
35-64: 48.7 Trump, 45.5 Clinton
65+: 52.2 Clinton, 45.1 Trump

Education
HS or less: 54.6 Trump, 40.4 Clinton
some college: 53.2 Trump, 43.7 Clinton
BA+: 61.3 Clinton, 29.8 Trump

Household Income
$0-35k: 48.6 Clinton, 42.9 Trump
$35-75k: 50.5 Trump, 41.8 Clinton
$75k+: 52.3 Clinton, 43.5 Trump

Race
White: 55.2 Trump, 39 Clinton
African American: 89.1 Clinton, 2.3 Trump
Other ethnicity: 48.3 Trump, 45.9 Clinton
Hispanic: 64.6 Clinton, 35.4 Trump

Gender
Female: 50 Clinton, 46.9 Trump
Male: 46.9 Clinton, 45.4 Trump

But with a 300ish sample size, the margins of error are monstrous. That's what any abnormalities can be contributed to, FTR.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #148 on: July 31, 2016, 02:12:24 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/30):
Trump - 46.1 (-.5)
Clinton - 41.9 (+.2)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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Soonerdem
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« Reply #149 on: July 31, 2016, 08:22:17 pm »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/30):
Trump - 46.1 (-.5)
Clinton - 41.9 (+.2)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Smaller change then you would expect
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