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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63794 times)
cinyc
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« Reply #275 on: August 26, 2016, 03:03:07 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #276 on: August 26, 2016, 03:25:39 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!
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Arch
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« Reply #277 on: August 26, 2016, 03:27:04 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!

That's not how this poll panel works...
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michelle
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« Reply #278 on: August 26, 2016, 07:07:06 am »

Trying to account for the days dropping off with a new formula.

8/25 Numbers.

Trump 45%
Clinton 41%

I don't feel as confident about the accuracy, so I'll also use the old formula.

Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 39% (+1)

The new formula takes these numbers and the numbers from seven days ago and tries to weigh how that day rolling off the charts would affect the numbers.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #279 on: August 26, 2016, 08:16:01 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!

That's not how this poll panel works...
That's how sarcasm works, dude... Grin
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Arch
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« Reply #280 on: August 26, 2016, 10:36:30 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!

That's not how this poll panel works...
That's how sarcasm works, dude... Grin

Oops Tongue
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Seriously?
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« Reply #281 on: August 27, 2016, 02:15:33 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/26) Clinton +1.3%
Clinton: 44.6% (+1.0)
Trump: 43.3% (-1.0)
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michelle
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« Reply #282 on: August 27, 2016, 11:59:19 am »

8/26 Old Formula:

Clinton 51% (+12)
Trump 37% (-9)

New Formula

Clinton 48% (+7)
Trump 40% (-5)
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #283 on: August 27, 2016, 06:37:48 pm »

8/26 Old Formula:

Clinton 51% (+12)
Trump 37% (-9)

New Formula

Clinton 48% (+7)
Trump 40% (-5)

Jesus the old formula numbers for Trump lol.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #284 on: August 28, 2016, 07:00:42 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (Aug. 21-27) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.4)
Trump: 43.6% (+0.3)

It seems like daily polls have stabilized around C +5-7 (after adjustments for house effect).

I look forward to A pollsters coming next 1-2 week.

JUL. 29-31         CNN, (A-, RV)                          C+8
JUL. 29-31         CBS News/New York Times, (A-, RV)      C+5
JUL. 31-AUG. 2   Fox News, (A, RV)                        C+9
JUL. 31-AUG. 3   NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A-, RV)    C+9
JUL. 29-AUG. 4   IBD/TIPP   (A-, RV)                      C+4   
AUG. 1-3      Marist College   (A, RV)                    C+14   
AUG. 1-4      ABC News/Washington Post    (A+, LV)        C+8
AUG. 4-7      Monmouth University   (A+, LV)              C+13
AUG. 5-8      Selzer & Company    (A+, LV)                C+4
AUG. 9-16    Pew Research Center   (B+, RV)               C+4
AUG. 18-24   Quinnipiac University   (A-, LV)             C+7

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Seriously?
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« Reply #285 on: August 28, 2016, 10:02:42 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/27) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.4)
Trump: 43.6% (+0.3)
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #286 on: August 28, 2016, 09:14:32 pm »

Old Formula

Trump 45% (+8)
Clinton 42% (-9)

New Formula

Trump 45% (+5)
Clinton 42% (-6)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #287 on: August 29, 2016, 02:13:48 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/28) Trump +0.4%
Trump: 44.0% (+0.4)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.6)
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michelle
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« Reply #288 on: August 29, 2016, 08:26:35 am »

Old Formula

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-2)

New Formula

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 41% (-1)
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cMac36
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« Reply #289 on: August 29, 2016, 10:16:18 am »

Am I the only one that read this constantly as "USC's Dorm's Life"?
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Seriously?
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« Reply #290 on: August 30, 2016, 02:13:14 am »
« Edited: August 30, 2016, 02:15:31 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/29) Trump +2.8%
Trump: 45.1% (+1.1)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.4)

Clinton's lowest number and Trump's largest lead since 7/31.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #291 on: August 30, 2016, 02:39:24 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #292 on: August 30, 2016, 05:54:34 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #293 on: August 30, 2016, 07:04:05 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #294 on: August 30, 2016, 07:11:28 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


You're an unusual poster you know that?
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #295 on: August 30, 2016, 07:19:50 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


You're an unusual poster you know that?

Well, he's from Sweden. But why is his username Little Big Planet? Isn't that a video game?
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #296 on: August 30, 2016, 07:33:32 am »

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out

You're an unusual poster you know that?
It sounds like a trap!

I'm an average Trump supporter, I think.
Well, he's from Sweden. But why is his username Little Big Planet? Isn't that a video game?
Yes, it is! And a good one!
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #297 on: August 30, 2016, 11:02:06 am »

Old Formula

Donald Trump 52% (+6)
Hillary Clinton 35% (-5)

New Formula

Donald Trump 49% (+3)
Hillary Clinton 38% (-3)
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #298 on: August 30, 2016, 11:26:18 am »

For what it's worth, 538 now only adjusts this by 4, not 6.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #299 on: August 31, 2016, 02:15:45 am »
« Edited: August 31, 2016, 02:22:18 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/30) Trump +3.4%
Trump: 45.3% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.9% (-0.4)

The sample has been replenished a bit the past few days from 2,469 to 2,576.

Clinton voter intensity is down to 81.1 from a peak of 84.7 on 8/26, nearly matching Trump's number of 80.5.

It's safe to assume that Clinton's speech about Trump being a racist last week has yet to register in this tracking poll.
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