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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63637 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #300 on: August 31, 2016, 04:14:03 am »

BEAUTIFUL!

Clinton in low 40s is my perception of the race. And we don't even add 5-10% of Shy Trump voters. Laaaaaandslide Grin
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michelle
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« Reply #301 on: August 31, 2016, 09:36:24 am »

Old Formula
Trump 47% (-5)
Clinton 40% (+5)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-4)
Clinton 41% (+3)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #302 on: September 01, 2016, 02:13:36 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #303 on: September 01, 2016, 03:31:54 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.

THE TRUMP COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN!!!
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #304 on: September 01, 2016, 05:21:23 am »

I assume this poll is online? Presumably people are more likely to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump if it's via the internet rather than via the phone.
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Lok
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« Reply #305 on: September 01, 2016, 05:47:10 am »

Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #306 on: September 01, 2016, 06:11:33 am »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 06:14:17 am by LittleBigOctopus »

Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? Smiley



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? Smiley
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Seriously?
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« Reply #307 on: September 01, 2016, 08:35:03 am »

Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? Smiley



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? Smiley
If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #308 on: September 01, 2016, 08:53:34 am »
« Edited: September 01, 2016, 09:01:10 am by LittleBigOctopus »

If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.
Yes, favs look delicious. It will probably show a really close race.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #309 on: September 01, 2016, 09:06:56 am »

Nate Silver pratically "admits" that their model should have believed more to this pollster Smiley

He is also talking about red hacks = some readers Grin
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Seriously?
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« Reply #310 on: September 02, 2016, 02:12:59 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/1) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.0% (-1.0)
Clinton: 43.3% (+0.9)
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #311 on: September 02, 2016, 02:18:54 am »

Sad
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TrumpCard
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« Reply #312 on: September 02, 2016, 02:40:52 am »

I wouldn't look too much into close polls.  Trump needs to pick up OH and PA which the latter is brutally difficult with the Philadelphia vote. Having said that he needs to hang onto all of the center/right states.  His shortest path consists of PA, OH, and FL while holding onto NC.  Without PA he can still pick up CO, IA, and NH but that's uphill as well.
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michelle
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« Reply #313 on: September 02, 2016, 05:18:06 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 49%
Trump 38%

New Formula
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%
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« Reply #314 on: September 03, 2016, 02:12:05 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #315 on: September 03, 2016, 07:34:53 am »

Smiley
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #316 on: September 03, 2016, 07:38:34 am »

Old Formula
Trump 53% (+15)
Clinton 36% (-13)

New Formula
Trump 50% (+10)
Clinton 39% (-8)
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Southern Delegate-elect Spark
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« Reply #317 on: September 03, 2016, 09:45:37 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.

Wow
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« Reply #318 on: September 04, 2016, 02:11:48 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/3) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.1)
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Maxwell
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« Reply #319 on: September 04, 2016, 01:54:10 pm »

I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #320 on: September 04, 2016, 02:07:35 pm »

I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #321 on: September 04, 2016, 08:10:53 pm »

Old Formula
Trump 43% (-10)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula
Clinton 43% (+4)
Trump 43% (-7)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #322 on: September 05, 2016, 02:17:06 am »
« Edited: September 06, 2016, 02:10:21 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/4) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 44.7% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #323 on: September 05, 2016, 02:18:04 am »

I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.

No. It's a data point. Like all other data points that I post here, good or bad for Trump.
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michelle
MikeWells12
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« Reply #324 on: September 05, 2016, 03:42:55 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 43% (+/-0)

New Formula
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 43% (+/-0)
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