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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63823 times)
Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #350 on: September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 pm »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.
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michelle
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« Reply #351 on: September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 pm »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #352 on: September 11, 2016, 02:12:26 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/10) Clinton +1.4%
Clinton: 45.0% (+0.2)
Trump: 43.6% (-0.2)
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Southern Delegate matthew27
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« Reply #353 on: September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 am »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.

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Staunch anti-Trump Dem for Trump bcuz SoCiAlIsM
xingkerui
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« Reply #354 on: September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 am »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
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Lok
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« Reply #355 on: September 11, 2016, 03:30:16 am »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

I'll probably bump her a little bit, but not by much, probably by around 1-2 percent
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Seriously?
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« Reply #356 on: September 11, 2016, 05:16:37 am »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #357 on: September 11, 2016, 05:36:04 am »

Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.

The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base Smiley
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #358 on: September 11, 2016, 08:31:47 am »

Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.

The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base Smiley
By that logic, "basket full of deplorables" was the best thing she possibly could've done.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #359 on: September 11, 2016, 11:22:21 am »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #360 on: September 12, 2016, 02:11:53 am »
« Edited: September 12, 2016, 02:13:44 am by Seriously? »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #361 on: September 12, 2016, 02:13:10 am »
« Edited: September 13, 2016, 02:10:46 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/11) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.4% (-0.6)
Trump: 44.1% (+0.5)
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #362 on: September 12, 2016, 10:09:38 am »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

Um, okay.  That was eighteen years ago.  Not sure how that's relevant here and now.
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michelle
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« Reply #363 on: September 12, 2016, 05:36:27 pm »

Old Formula
Trump 47% (+5)
Clinton 41% (-5)

New Formula
Trump 46% (+3)
Clinton 41% (-4)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #364 on: September 13, 2016, 02:13:24 am »
« Edited: September 15, 2016, 02:15:47 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/12) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.8% (+1.7)
Clinton: 42.8% (-1.4)

Huge jump for Trump. It bodes watching the other two tracking polls to see if this is a direct impact of Clinton's "medical incident"/the "basket of deplorables" comment or just some statistical noise.

Given the nature of how this particular poll is conducted, it could very well be the Clinton health scare that pushed such a radical change in one day. It's a panel of the same voters for the most part. About 70 people were added to the sample since Sunday.

Digging deeper into the poll, Trump's intensity was up by almost a point. As to the question of who would win, Trump jumped almost a point, while Hillary fell almost a point. Hillary still is the heavy favorite 52.2-43.3.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #365 on: September 13, 2016, 04:46:28 am »

Deplorables!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #366 on: September 13, 2016, 06:22:19 am »

It is a largest bump in LA Times polling history. We'll probably get other polls, confirming or not this, but at least it follows my gut feeling Cheesy
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #367 on: September 13, 2016, 06:27:00 am »

I wish there was a way I could put entire threads on ignore so I didnt have to look at this junk.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #368 on: September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 am »

Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?
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afleitch
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« Reply #369 on: September 13, 2016, 09:14:14 am »

Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
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Dirty Dan
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« Reply #370 on: September 13, 2016, 09:18:34 am »

Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.

So this poll shows that there is a lot of crossover voting that probably won't happen or that there is a realignment?
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afleitch
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« Reply #371 on: September 13, 2016, 09:24:09 am »

Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.

So this poll shows that there is a lot of crossover voting that probably won't happen or that there is a realignment?

It is tracking a sample of voters that isn't necessary an appropriate sample. No other tracker, even reuters is showing a Bush '04 level of support amongst Hispanics.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #372 on: September 13, 2016, 11:25:04 am »

Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
Yeah, looking at the cross tabs, black voters are basically the only ones who've changed, and in an eerily similar way to a couple of weeks ago. This is just an odd consequence of methodology
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Seriously?
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« Reply #373 on: September 14, 2016, 02:15:23 am »
« Edited: September 14, 2016, 03:20:21 am by Seriously? »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe. Tongue
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« Reply #374 on: September 14, 2016, 02:16:22 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
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