USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:11:58 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 29
Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 83691 times)
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #375 on: September 14, 2016, 02:26:22 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president
Logged
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,489
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #376 on: September 14, 2016, 02:36:46 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #377 on: September 14, 2016, 04:06:31 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #378 on: September 14, 2016, 05:28:05 AM »

This new result will likely be a new equilibrium for the poll. We'll see probably another week of Trump prosperity unless something else changes (the one thing I can think of right now is the Newsweek cover). Anyway, the numbers:

Old Formula
Trump 52% (-4)
Clinton 37% (+4)

New Formula
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 40% (+3)
Logged
Lachi
lok1999
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,347
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -1.06, S: -3.02

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #379 on: September 14, 2016, 06:05:01 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #380 on: September 14, 2016, 04:36:18 PM »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

Um, okay.  That was eighteen years ago.  Not sure how that's relevant here and now.
Just as relevant as Trump's racist apartment policies...
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #381 on: September 15, 2016, 02:16:54 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/14) Trump +5.9%
Trump: 47.2% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.3% (-0.7)

The free fall continues.
Logged
Pandaguineapig
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,608
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #382 on: September 15, 2016, 02:19:05 AM »

The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #383 on: September 15, 2016, 02:27:20 AM »

The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race
Unless there's a Nixon-Kennedy moment, debates generally do little in the grand scheme of things. The biggest challenge for this poll will be next Monday, when the Monday folks that really through this survey off get re-interviewed.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #384 on: September 15, 2016, 03:39:22 AM »

Nice Smiley
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #385 on: September 16, 2016, 02:12:36 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.4%
Trump: 47.4% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.3)
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #386 on: September 16, 2016, 04:35:28 AM »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #387 on: September 16, 2016, 05:12:09 AM »

Old Formula
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 39% (+2)

New Formula
Trump 47% (-1)
Clinton 41% (+1)

The race send to be stabilizing around a mid-single digit Trump lead, which makes sense for a tossup race if you take into account the house effect.
Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #388 on: September 16, 2016, 03:31:05 PM »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #389 on: September 16, 2016, 03:58:55 PM »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
No, 47.4% is his highest result, though he got the same numbers during the convention's peak
Logged
Wiz in Wis
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,711


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #390 on: September 16, 2016, 04:08:12 PM »

If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #391 on: September 16, 2016, 04:12:51 PM »

If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? Roll Eyes
Logged
Associate Justice PiT
PiT (The Physicist)
Atlas Politician
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,135
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #392 on: September 16, 2016, 06:35:18 PM »

If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? Roll Eyes

     Crosstabs can point to flaws in poll numbers, but I grimace at people reflexively looking at crosstabs to find faults. There's almost always weird stuff in there.
Logged
Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #393 on: September 17, 2016, 02:12:23 AM »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.0%
Trump: 47.2% (-0.2)
Clinton: 41.2% (+0.2)

The free fall has stopped. Now it's time to see if there will be a correction starting next Monday.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #394 on: September 17, 2016, 03:58:51 AM »

So far, so good Roll Eyes
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #395 on: September 17, 2016, 05:46:53 AM »


Logged
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #396 on: September 17, 2016, 08:47:42 AM »
« Edited: September 17, 2016, 08:50:19 AM by John Ewards »

Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating...
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,646
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #397 on: September 17, 2016, 08:50:37 AM »

Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating Smiley
Logged
StatesPoll
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 441
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #398 on: September 17, 2016, 09:14:02 AM »


+6% leads = enough to celebrate

Logged
Wells
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,069
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #399 on: September 17, 2016, 09:21:36 AM »

Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 11 12 13 14 15 [16] 17 18 19 20 21 ... 29  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.049 seconds with 10 queries.