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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63050 times)
Ebsy
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« on: July 15, 2016, 04:45:41 pm »

LA times literally admits that this is the first poll from the pollster. Total junk.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 05:21:56 pm »

So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 05:35:49 pm »

lol the crosstabs are ridiculous junk as well. We'll see if this s[Inks] tracker improves at all as time goes on, but for now it is firmly in the junk category. The only interesting part for me is that the voters expect Clinton to win by a wide margin.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: July 21, 2016, 01:56:20 pm »

They're weighting it by who they feel is more likely to vote, so perhaps the convention has been demoralizing Trump supporters.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2016, 02:15:06 pm »

I think they took the poll down. The links no longer take you to the daily tracker.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #5 on: July 25, 2016, 03:51:37 am »
« Edited: July 25, 2016, 04:00:43 am by Ebsy »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #6 on: July 26, 2016, 02:17:51 pm »

Looking at the demographics seem to indicate they have done a very poor job constructing a representative sample.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2016, 02:16:29 am »

Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2016, 02:22:15 am »

Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
It's not a poll.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: August 04, 2016, 12:43:17 am »

Now it is Trump +1. Might the final poll showing Trump ahead finally topple on the rcp average?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2016, 02:38:34 am »

Not good!
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Ebsy
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2016, 12:11:39 am »

The shifts in the this tracker are almost entirely due to their weird seesawing in black support for Clinton. Really just a terrible poll.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2016, 02:39:07 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #13 on: October 08, 2016, 01:00:14 pm »

10/7 Trump +6
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-7)

Trump's numbers seem more stable, while Clinton's keep jumping around. It's probably a good sign for Trump, but there's still a month until the election and the most recent Trump controversy hasn't affected these numbers yet. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm sure it will be interesting.
You are reading too much into this fake poll.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2016, 02:53:25 am »

Hell has frozen over.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #15 on: October 25, 2016, 04:38:35 pm »

Yeah, Seriously was posting the numbers as they appeared at the time. LA Times must be revising them to avoid humiliation.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2016, 12:45:34 pm »

This thread should be preserved for study by future generations.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2016, 11:08:17 am »

I can't believe we are still worrying about this junk.
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