Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
December 09, 2019, 07:41:03 am
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print
Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63267 times)
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« on: July 16, 2016, 12:02:57 pm »

That's a good trend. It went from Trump +1.2 to Trump +0.4. If this continues, then Clinton will win every vote on Election Day.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #1 on: July 26, 2016, 02:09:13 pm »

Demographics (shrinking leads are italicized, majority leads are bolded):

Overall: Trump +5

Age
18-34: Trump +2
35-64: Trump +4
65+: Trump +11

Education
HS or less: Trump +15
some college: Trump +12
BA+: Clinton +10

Household Income
$0-35k: Clinton +7
$35-75k: Trump +17
$75k+: Trump +3

Race
White: Trump +24
African American: Clinton +79
Other ethnicity: Trump +28
Hispanic: Clinton +22

Gender
Female: Clinton +6
Male: Trump +16
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2016, 03:27:04 pm »

Using the LittleBigPlanet's equation above, I bring you yesterday's demographics.

Age
18-34: 51.2 Clinton, 42.3 Trump
35-64: 48.7 Trump, 45.5 Clinton
65+: 52.2 Clinton, 45.1 Trump

Education
HS or less: 54.6 Trump, 40.4 Clinton
some college: 53.2 Trump, 43.7 Clinton
BA+: 61.3 Clinton, 29.8 Trump

Household Income
$0-35k: 48.6 Clinton, 42.9 Trump
$35-75k: 50.5 Trump, 41.8 Clinton
$75k+: 52.3 Clinton, 43.5 Trump

Race
White: 55.2 Trump, 39 Clinton
African American: 89.1 Clinton, 2.3 Trump
Other ethnicity: 48.3 Trump, 45.9 Clinton
Hispanic: 64.6 Clinton, 35.4 Trump

Gender
Female: 50 Clinton, 46.9 Trump
Male: 46.9 Clinton, 45.4 Trump

But with a 300ish sample size, the margins of error are monstrous. That's what any abnormalities can be contributed to, FTR.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #3 on: August 01, 2016, 07:00:54 pm »


If you actually checked the crosstabs then you would know that what you just posted is obviously not true. The poll probably isn't that accurate (considering how it goes against every other poll out right now), but don't post lies to back it up, okay? Trump is only winning 5% of blacks in this poll, and Clinton is at 54% with Hispanics.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #4 on: August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 pm »

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 10:21:00 am »

8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #6 on: August 25, 2016, 06:02:17 am »

Trump 49% (+11)
Clinton 38% (-14)

I'll try and come up with a new formula that takes into account the days dropping off.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2016, 07:07:06 am »

Trying to account for the days dropping off with a new formula.

8/25 Numbers.

Trump 45%
Clinton 41%

I don't feel as confident about the accuracy, so I'll also use the old formula.

Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 39% (+1)

The new formula takes these numbers and the numbers from seven days ago and tries to weigh how that day rolling off the charts would affect the numbers.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2016, 11:59:19 am »

8/26 Old Formula:

Clinton 51% (+12)
Trump 37% (-9)

New Formula

Clinton 48% (+7)
Trump 40% (-5)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2016, 09:14:32 pm »

Old Formula

Trump 45% (+8)
Clinton 42% (-9)

New Formula

Trump 45% (+5)
Clinton 42% (-6)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2016, 08:26:35 am »

Old Formula

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-2)

New Formula

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 41% (-1)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2016, 07:19:50 am »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 Grin

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


You're an unusual poster you know that?

Well, he's from Sweden. But why is his username Little Big Planet? Isn't that a video game?
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2016, 11:02:06 am »

Old Formula

Donald Trump 52% (+6)
Hillary Clinton 35% (-5)

New Formula

Donald Trump 49% (+3)
Hillary Clinton 38% (-3)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2016, 09:36:24 am »

Old Formula
Trump 47% (-5)
Clinton 40% (+5)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-4)
Clinton 41% (+3)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #14 on: September 02, 2016, 05:18:06 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 49%
Trump 38%

New Formula
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #15 on: September 03, 2016, 07:38:34 am »

Old Formula
Trump 53% (+15)
Clinton 36% (-13)

New Formula
Trump 50% (+10)
Clinton 39% (-8)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2016, 08:10:53 pm »

Old Formula
Trump 43% (-10)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula
Clinton 43% (+4)
Trump 43% (-7)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #17 on: September 05, 2016, 03:42:55 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 43% (+/-0)

New Formula
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 43% (+/-0)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2016, 05:57:34 am »

Old Formula
Clinton 49% (+4)
Trump 42% (-1)

New Formula
Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 43% (+/-0)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2016, 06:18:53 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 47% (-2)
Trump 41% (-1)

New Formula
Clinton 45% (-2)
Trump 42% (-1)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #20 on: September 08, 2016, 03:18:28 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 47% (+/-0)
Trump 41% (+/-0)

New Formula
Clinton 45% (+/-0)
Trump 42% (+/-0)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2016, 02:22:55 pm »

Actually, the most pro-Clinton day before she took the lead rolled off the average, and it responded accordingly. This was to be expected. And the old formula will look a little weird.

Old Formula
Trump 50% (+9)
Clinton 45% (-2)

New Formula
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 44% (-1)
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #22 on: September 10, 2016, 12:56:53 pm »

Old Formula
Clinton 47% (+2)
Trump 41% (-9)

New Formula
Clinton 45% (+1)
Trump 42% (-6)

Yesterday was just statistical noise.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 pm »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.
Logged
michelle
MikeWells12
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,971
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: 0.35

P
« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2016, 05:36:27 pm »

Old Formula
Trump 47% (+5)
Clinton 41% (-5)

New Formula
Trump 46% (+3)
Clinton 41% (-4)
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC