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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63063 times)
dfwlibertylover
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« on: July 15, 2016, 03:56:08 pm »

So is this going to be our thread for the daily poll?
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 05:23:15 pm »

LA times literally admits that this is the first poll from the pollster. Total junk.
actually, https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2012 The site of the USC polling indicates that this is the exact same team which developed RAND in 2012 and correctly predicted the 2012 election based on their own polling + panelists, so I'd wait to jump to calling something junk just because it doesn't show your candidate ahead...
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 05:24:58 pm »

This is like the RAND/American Life Panel tracking poll from 2012 that surveyed the same group of people.  Even if the topline is questionable, it could be good for tracking trends. 

I wonder if RAND itself is going to be doing it again this cycle.
same team that developed that, developed this: https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 02:12:07 am »
« Edited: July 17, 2016, 03:05:53 am by dfwlibertylover »

New numbers:
Trump - 42.8
Clinton - 41.7
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
based on 1,828 respondents
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2016, 02:20:59 am »

new numbers:
Trump 43.3
Clinton 42.2
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2016, 02:14:40 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2016, 02:17:30 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2016, 02:14:37 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/21):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
However, Trump has retaken the decimal point lead, 43.4 to 43.2
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2016, 02:14:27 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/22):
Trump - 44 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2016, 02:15:05 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2016, 06:13:42 pm »

https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #11 on: July 25, 2016, 02:43:12 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/24):
Trump - 45 (+/-)
Clinton - 41 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #12 on: July 25, 2016, 05:21:51 am »

lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
well I mean it's basically the same thing as the CNN poll so...
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2016, 02:14:56 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/26):
Trump - 47 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2016, 02:20:45 am »

Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2016, 02:27:45 am »

Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
It's not a poll.
It is a poll, it's included in the RCP average and it's included on 538.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #16 on: July 28, 2016, 02:14:50 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/27):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #17 on: July 29, 2016, 02:18:02 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/28):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 41 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #18 on: July 30, 2016, 02:14:55 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #19 on: July 30, 2016, 04:14:24 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Movin' On Up!
I believe this will put Clinton in the lead on the RCP national head to head average unless another poll comes out today that shows good results for trump.
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #20 on: August 01, 2016, 02:11:14 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/31):
Trump - 46 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2016, 08:05:31 pm »

CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #22 on: October 26, 2016, 04:49:28 am »

10/25:

Trump - 45.3
Clinton - 44.2
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #23 on: October 28, 2016, 02:49:27 am »

10/27:
Trump - 45.8
Clinton - 44.1
translates to Trump + 2 on poll averages
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dfwlibertylover
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« Reply #24 on: October 28, 2016, 03:08:38 am »

Honestly if the 1% chance that this poll is correct verifies I am going to both laugh and cry
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