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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63783 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
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Posts: 1,868
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Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« on: September 11, 2016, 08:31:47 am »

Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.

The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base Smiley
By that logic, "basket full of deplorables" was the best thing she possibly could've done.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
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Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #1 on: September 13, 2016, 11:25:04 am »

Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
Yeah, looking at the cross tabs, black voters are basically the only ones who've changed, and in an eerily similar way to a couple of weeks ago. This is just an odd consequence of methodology
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #2 on: September 14, 2016, 04:36:18 pm »

Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

Um, okay.  That was eighteen years ago.  Not sure how that's relevant here and now.
Just as relevant as Trump's racist apartment policies...
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #3 on: September 16, 2016, 03:31:05 pm »

It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? Cheesy
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2016, 08:47:42 am »
« Edited: September 17, 2016, 08:50:19 am by John Ewards »

Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating...
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 10:20:28 am »

he just fell by .4 percent, where 1 week ago he hadn't even started to surge. This is a sign that we're returning to pre-surge levels.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2016, 05:28:55 am »

Looks like whatever bizarre bump happened in the African American numbers is straightening itself out. I don't get why the poll behaves this way (you'd think you'd see movement among whites as well) but whatever.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2016, 08:04:32 am »

so, StatesPoll, what do you think? Do they oversample millenial Texans with addresses ending in "3"? Wink
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #8 on: October 14, 2016, 02:13:49 pm »
« Edited: October 14, 2016, 02:46:05 pm by @realJohnEwards »

If this dump shows them tied, Clinton has it in the bag.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2016, 07:59:46 am »

Goodbye Trump's Last Stand.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2016, 05:31:55 am »

Freedom trend!
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,868
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #11 on: November 08, 2016, 08:35:40 am »

I guess that's the last we'll hear from them.

Trump       46,8
Clinton      43,6
So Trump+3.2? Sounds like an Obama 2012-style victory for Clinton...
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