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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63118 times)
Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Posts: 19,515
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Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« on: July 18, 2016, 03:12:49 am »

I am not sure about this, but L.A Times had always
very accurate polls in the past.

Considering the LA Times was at lengths to point out that they're new and untested, I wouldn't invest too much into this.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2016, 04:36:19 am »
« Edited: July 27, 2016, 04:38:20 am by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
It's not a poll.
It is a poll, it's included in the RCP average and it's included on 538.

As we know, what RCP chooses to use or not isn't a vote of confidence.

I've been ignoring this thing and will continue to do so - those cross-tabs show me I was right to do so.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2016, 06:15:53 am »

Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
If one is intrested in trend, it indeed gives some information. I don't believe, Trump is +7 now, but I don't believe either, Clinton was +12 as ABC/Washington and Ipsos/Reuters showed.

Or is ABC pollster a trash heap as well?

Clinton was never ahead by that much.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2016, 08:00:59 am »

I mean, as in, in reality. She might have been up 7-9 in reality, but more than that I have a hard time buying.

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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2016, 06:20:41 pm »

It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

Sorry Dukey it isn't but that's your loss, my friend Smiley
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #5 on: July 28, 2016, 08:25:10 am »
« Edited: July 28, 2016, 08:42:02 am by Fmr President & Senator Polnut »

And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.

Again... No. "Unskewing" was based on the GOP fever dream that a) the 2008 electorate was a fluke and b) not understanding anything about how party self-ID had changed. What most of us are doing is when the core datasets that make up the poll are wonky to an extreme, when compared to what we know about the state of the race, then I'm calling BS.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #6 on: July 28, 2016, 08:42:28 am »

And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.

That's the best you got?
Again... No.

Can you even vote in this election?
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #7 on: July 31, 2016, 09:17:43 pm »


Pre DNC(7/24) TRUMP 46.3%
Post DNC(7/30) TRUMP 46.1%

Pre RNC(7/17) Hillary 42.2%
Post DNC(7/30) Hillary 41.9%

Wink


Um, there's still like 4 more days until we capture the entire DNC bump.
[/quote]

Well, we also know that this poll is garbage, so there's that.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #8 on: August 13, 2016, 07:31:09 am »

why are millenials so conservative in this sample? they made a huge mistake there and their concept doesn't allow for it to be corrected.

Yeah - it's been f***ed from day one.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #9 on: September 14, 2016, 02:36:46 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #10 on: September 21, 2016, 08:15:12 am »

Yes, the poll serves a broad purpose and has shown the trends - I just don't want it included in aggregates when it's SO off.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #11 on: September 30, 2016, 02:27:31 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/29) Trump +5.6%
Trump: 47.3% (+0.6%)
Clinton: 41.7% (-1.2%)

A Trump bounce appears to have emerged.

Lol
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #12 on: September 30, 2016, 02:42:22 am »

Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Because this time it wouldn't different ... something something liberals
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,515
Australia


Political Matrix
E: -2.71, S: -5.22


« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2016, 02:48:38 am »

Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

But surely you do give them some credit for holding on to their model? 99% chance it's an outlier, but there is this 1% chance...

I respect anyone prepared to make a fool of themselves.
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