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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63062 times)
cinyc
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« on: July 15, 2016, 03:37:02 pm »
« edited: November 08, 2016, 10:21:08 am by cinyc »

USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak Poll
Trump 43%
Clinton 40%

Weighted Panel of 3,000 Voters; MoE +/- 3.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-lat-tracking-poll-20160705-snap-story.html

This is new daily tracking poll, which debuted today.  Some info on the methodology:

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It appears that they ask "Someone Else" instead of naming Johnson/Stein.  I can't find the numbers for "someone else" or the undecideds in the linked article.
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cinyc
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2016, 03:46:00 pm »


University of Southern California Dornsife College (their Liberal Arts division) and the Los Angeles Times, L.A.'s biggest newspaper.
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cinyc
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2016, 03:58:20 pm »
« Edited: July 15, 2016, 04:12:33 pm by cinyc »

More on the methodology here:
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

They basically ask 1/7th of the panel who they are going to vote for and the percentage chance they will vote per day, so 450 or so people are requestioned every day.  Everyone theoretically gets asked once a week.  They then weigh the results based on likelihood of vote and demographics to come up with a new topline at midnight (presumably Pacific time) every day, using the previous week's results.  

Friday's results were closer than Thursday's, probably 42-41 Trump, but I can't say for sure because USC didn't provide real numbers, just a graph.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2016, 05:33:58 pm »

So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.

No.  It's a real tracking poll called a panel survey that uses the same panel over and over again instead of finding a new random sample every day.  The panel is supposedly a representative sample of the electorate (with the pollsters even providing tablets and internet access to those without a computer).   There is no magic in recruiting a new panel every day if the original sample is representative - it just costs the pollster more money.

Panel surveys have been used for tracking polls in the past.  They're probably better for spotting trends than the toplines alone.

The other quirk that this pollster uses is weighing responses based on probability of voting instead of using a traditional likely voter screen.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: July 16, 2016, 11:54:23 am »
« Edited: July 16, 2016, 11:58:12 am by cinyc »

Today's numbers:
Trump 42.2%
Clinton 41.8%
(951 respondents)

Yesterday was:
Trump 42.1%
Clinton 40.9%
(1193 respondents)

http://www.latimes.com/politics/
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cinyc
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« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2016, 02:27:24 am »
« Edited: July 20, 2016, 11:43:29 am by cinyc »

7/17 Numbers:
Trump 42.9%
Clinton 42.2%
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2016, 03:36:06 pm »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

I see Trump 42.8, Clinton 42.6 if you're into decimals.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: July 23, 2016, 07:50:58 am »
« Edited: July 23, 2016, 07:52:42 am by cinyc »

If you heart decimals, it's Trump 44.2, Clinton 42.3.

By the way, for my headline, I've been rounding the difference, not the numbers.  So if it's Clinton +0.6, I say Clinton +1.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2016, 09:17:59 am »

With decimals, it's 45.1 Trump, 41.7 Clinton.
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cinyc
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« Reply #9 on: July 25, 2016, 09:54:58 am »

7/24: Trump 45.4, Clinton 41.3 for Trump +4.
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: July 29, 2016, 10:10:05 am »

If you Purple heart decimals, it's Trump 46.7, Clinton 40.6,
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: July 30, 2016, 11:05:02 am »

Trump 46.6, Clinton 41.7, for those who Purple heart decimals.
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cinyc
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2016, 03:03:07 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2016, 02:19:31 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/1) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.9% (+0.2)
Clinton: 42.2% (-0.1)
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cinyc
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« Reply #14 on: October 09, 2016, 02:20:40 am »
« Edited: October 10, 2016, 02:23:49 am by cinyc »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/8) Trump +2.2%
Trump: 45.5 (-0.6)
Clinton: 43.3 (+0.3)
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cinyc
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« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2016, 02:21:35 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/9) Trump +3.1%
Trump: 45.8 (+0.3)
Clinton: 42.7 (-0.6)
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: October 15, 2016, 02:15:16 am »

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/14)Sad Trump +0.1
Trump: 44.2% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.1% (-0.1)
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: October 16, 2016, 07:12:24 pm »

10/15 Trump +3
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 43% (=)

What does this mean? I thought poll has trump up 1 point not 3?

Those are the imputed numbers for today's sample.  It is a 7-day rolling average.  Left has been computing the numbers that have been added today to make the 7-day poll what it is.
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cinyc
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2016, 04:14:13 pm »


Again, Left's numbers are for the one-day sample added today to the total 7-day sample reported by the L.A. Times.
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cinyc
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« Reply #19 on: October 25, 2016, 12:20:22 pm »

Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.

I check the numbers for myself practically every day someone has posted them.  They are accurate at the time they were posted.
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cinyc
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« Reply #20 on: October 25, 2016, 04:47:40 pm »
« Edited: October 25, 2016, 04:51:44 pm by cinyc »

The Seriously? numbers you cited are exactly what is currently reported for those dates on USC's poll website.  Nothing is changed:

http://cesrusc.org/election/

What website are you looking at for LA Times results?  Your dates seem to be for the polling date that is one day before what is reported on the USC website.  There must be difference in what your site and USC is reporting as the poll date.
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cinyc
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2016, 02:47:09 am »

10/26: Trump +0.7
Trump - 45.2 (-0.1)
Clinton - 44.5 (+0.3)
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cinyc
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« Reply #22 on: October 29, 2016, 02:22:05 am »

10/28: Trump +2.4
Trump 46.2% (+0.4)
Clinton 43.8% (-0.3)
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cinyc
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« Reply #23 on: October 30, 2016, 02:15:52 am »

10/29: Trump +1.9
Trump 46.0% (-0.2)
Clinton 44.1% (+0.3)
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cinyc
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« Reply #24 on: October 31, 2016, 01:18:09 pm »

Something is wierd here

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Seems to report 46.4-43.2

but

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

reports 46.0-44.1

Both are for 10/30

Is the former the projection and later the raw data ?

The L.A. Times' numbers are one day behind.  The 10/30 sample on the L.A. Times website is the 10/29 sample on the USC website.  I don't think the L.A. Times has updated its graphics with today's numbers.
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