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  USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2 (search mode)
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Author Topic: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2  (Read 63289 times)
Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« on: July 15, 2016, 04:08:19 pm »

I guess this means Clinton will lose the election.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #1 on: July 30, 2016, 01:23:17 pm »

So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #2 on: July 30, 2016, 02:46:24 pm »


Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).
Yes. Trends!
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
Interesting, that would be a 9 point bounce, right in line with RABA.
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2016, 09:16:53 pm »


Pre DNC(7/24) TRUMP 46.3%
Post DNC(7/30) TRUMP 46.1%

Pre RNC(7/17) Hillary 42.2%
Post DNC(7/30) Hillary 41.9%

Wink


[/quote]
Um, there's still like 4 more days until we capture the entire DNC bump.
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