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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  VA: Hampton University: Clinton and Trump tied (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA: Hampton University: Clinton and Trump tied  (Read 3230 times)
StatesPoll
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« on: July 16, 2016, 11:41:30 pm »
« edited: July 16, 2016, 11:51:42 pm by StatesPoll »

Honestly, looking at the crosstabs, they weren't even trying with this poll. Equal party ID and 54% men. That's right. 2012 exit polls had it at 53% women to 47% men, but the great pollsters at Hampton University have discovered that 14% of Virginia's women have changed sexes in the last 4 years.

54% men and its tied!?

Safe D. Virginia is solid blue.


Red Avatar snobbies can't even do simple math?

TRUMP vs Hillary  PPP Poll June 13-15,2016(Virginia)  1032 RV

TRUMP got 45%. and 40% of Women, 49% of Men. Just 9% difference.
(in virginia less gender gaps than other states)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_VA_61616.pdf

so even convert the Hampton University Poll as realistic gender ratio. it doesnt make that much diffrence.

if TRUMP got 43% of Men, 35% of Women at this Time.

54%(men) x 43% +  46%(women) x35% = 39.32%

convert the TRUMP's numbers as realistic gender ratio

53%(women) x 35% + 47%(men) x 43% = 38.76%

just 0.58% reduced. bah Tongue.  let's plus 0.58% for Hillary. Then

Original Numbers(Poll): TRUMP 39.2% > Hillary 38.8%   Spreads: TRUMP +0.4%
Fixed numbers as realistic gender ratio % : Hillary 39.38% > 38.62%  Spreads: Hillary +0.76%

soooooooooooo big diffrence. and definately 'safe D' with +0.76%ish leads.

Red avatar snobbies are dumb. they can't even do simple math.
7% overweighted men doesn't mean TRUMP gets 7% more than real.



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StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2016, 01:12:58 am »

Ugh, he's back. I was hoping he was banned.

even Liberal Nate Silver Adjusted Hampton Univ VA poll as TRUMP +1%

how r u feel? Wink

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/
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StatesPoll
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Posts: 441
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2016, 01:17:43 am »

54% men and it's tied?

VA's electorate is 53% female so it's probably Clinton +5

7% overweighted men doesn't mean TRUMP gets 5.4% more than real.

and even Liberal Nate Silver adjusted Hampton univ VA Poll as TRUMP +1% Wink

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/virginia/
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