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  Which group of voters played a bigger role in flipping WI, MI, and PA?
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Question: Which group of voters played a bigger role in the difference between the 2012 and 2016 results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania?
#1
Obama 2012 voters who stayed home in 2016
 
#2
Obama-Trump voters
 
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Total Voters: 84

Author Topic: Which group of voters played a bigger role in flipping WI, MI, and PA?  (Read 1884 times)
darklordoftech
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« on: July 17, 2019, 08:08:00 pm »

Now that there’s been time to gather data, I figured that I’d ask.
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Southern Delegate Spark
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« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2019, 11:12:57 am »

Both, but Obama-Trump voters. Since these voters tended to be disaffected working class Democrats who switched over to Trump.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2019, 01:04:35 pm »

The stay homers, be it by the choice of not voting for Hillary the Swamp Creature, or by the force of the voter purge.
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cvparty
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« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2019, 02:42:50 am »

switching votes has 2x the effect of not voting. obviously option 2
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Annatar
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« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2019, 03:13:10 am »

Obama Trump voters, there can be little doubt about that, turnout was up in both MI and PA from 2012-2016 and most of the vote swing was due to vote switching, Trump got 164,000 more votes than Romney in MI and the vote swing overall was 460,000, most of the swing was due to Obama voters going to Trump as 150,000 voters switching would produce a vote swing of 300,000 for example.

In PA the situation was similar, Trump got 290,000 more votes than Romney and the total vote swing was 355,000 votes. Nobody stayed home in PA in 2016 as turnout was up almost everywhere from Philadelphia to small rural counties in the centre of the state.

In WI, turnout didn't rise and Trump got the same number of votes as Romney but considering that an equal number of Romney and Obama voters likely defected to 3rd party voters, the only reason Trump got the same number of votes as Romney would have been the amount of Obama voters who voted for him equalled his losses to 3rd party voters.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2019, 09:38:18 am »

Option 2. You'd have to be in complete denial of objectivity to think people staying home had a larger impact than people flipping. In most places, turnout went up or stayed about the same, but where it went down it barely made a difference. People who switched made anywhere from 6-10% of margin difference from 2012 in their states, people staying home made <2% of difference anywhere. And we're not even considering where turnout went up and helped Trump, that seems to be an impossibility to some people.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #6 on: July 21, 2019, 06:37:44 pm »

Write in: Trump 2016 voters who stayed home in 2012.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2019, 06:52:49 am »

Obama voters who switched.
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SN2903
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2019, 05:24:35 pm »

I was one of the Obama voters who switched but I was an Obama 2008 Romney 2012 Trump 2016 voter.

The answer is obviously Obama voters switching.
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groundbreakingdaddy
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2019, 05:27:58 pm »

^^^^^^
O-O-T-T!? (probably) voter here
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mathstatman
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2019, 07:13:33 pm »

Obama-Trump voters, which there are more of than I think most D or R partisans realize (particularly since there were also plenty of Romney-Clinton switchers).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #11 on: July 26, 2019, 03:38:09 am »

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MarkD
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2019, 07:44:35 am »

There are too many variables to figure this out.
Between 2012 and 2016 there were hundreds of thousands of voters, in those three states alone, who died, and hundreds of thousands of new voters who turned out for the first time in 2016. The number of votes cast for minor parties went up significantly.

In 2012, the total number of votes cast for President in those three states was 13,553,065.
In 2016, the total number of votes cast was 13,940,912.
In 2012, Obama got 7,175,828 votes across those three states.
In 2016, Clinton got 6,577,816 votes across those three states.
In 2012, Romney got 6,203,656 votes.
In 2016, Trump got 6,655,560 votes.
In 2012, 189,886 votes were cast for others.
In 2016, 734,045 votes were cast for others.

There's no way that I can figure out which voters made the difference for Trump from data like this. I doubt exit polling was done in just those three states.
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Xing
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2019, 06:58:01 pm »

In PA, Obama-Trump voters. In MI and WI, Obama voters who either stayed home or voted third party.
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SN2903
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2019, 11:47:21 am »

I believe the "late deciders" were mostly voters that voted for Obama in 2012 that switched to Trump in 2016 but were probably for him all along but didn't want to admit it. I think most of these voters are still for Trump. I think the shift was due to a dissatisfaction with the political elite and the democrats moving too far left on cultural issues like immigration. These voters are the silent majority.
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Hammy
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2019, 12:36:35 am »

Depends on the region--in the midwest there were states that Clinton lost 2-3 votes for every vote Trump gained (and a few states where both lost more compared to 2012 but Clinton lost more than Trump), so it's clear people not showing up to the polls made the biggest difference. In states like Pennsylvania and Florida though, where turnout was higher, the Obama-Trump voters made the difference.
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Feel The Bern
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« Reply #16 on: September 04, 2019, 10:32:22 am »

Obama 2012 voters who stayed home in 2016 was especially a factor in the cities, but Obama - Trump were a factor as well. Without the Trump democrats, the three wouldn't have flipped, while the Obama 2012 voters who stayed at home actually only have flipped Michigan. If those turned out, turn-out in Detroit would be much higher, and would be enough to flip Michigan, but I think turn-out in Philadelphia was relatively high? Wisconsin has less of those super massive cities.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2019, 07:24:48 am »

Obama who stayed home
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Beef
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« Reply #18 on: September 20, 2019, 02:06:18 pm »

Wisconsin: Option 1
Michigan and Pennsylvania: Option 2

Romney got more votes than Trump in Wisconsin. Case closed.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #19 on: September 22, 2019, 05:22:30 am »

Wisconsin: Option 1
Michigan and Pennsylvania: Option 2

Romney got more votes than Trump in Wisconsin. Case closed.
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