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  Who will win Elliott County, KY?
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Author Topic: Who will win Elliott County, KY?  (Read 5105 times)
RINO Tom
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« Reply #25 on: July 18, 2016, 09:28:08 am »

I think Elliott County's Democratic leanings actually predate the discovery of coal in eastern Kentucky. But apparently they're not Dixiecrats either, since they voted for Obama twice (once by a landslide margin).

The fact that it was so close in 2012 all but confirms they ARE "Dixiecrats," to the extent that Dixiecrats still exist at all; there are only a couple hundred registered Republicans in the whole county.
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« Reply #26 on: April 12, 2019, 05:17:09 pm »

what did I just read
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Solid4096
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« Reply #27 on: April 12, 2019, 05:31:15 pm »

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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #28 on: April 12, 2019, 05:44:25 pm »


I can't see your image.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #29 on: April 12, 2019, 05:47:39 pm »


Its basically a screenshot of the largest County Swing %ages on this page
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #30 on: April 12, 2019, 05:47:50 pm »

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #31 on: April 12, 2019, 06:22:56 pm »

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...
At this point, Democrats would probably sell their mother to get Obama's numbers with rural whites.
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Skye
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« Reply #32 on: April 13, 2019, 12:36:41 am »

I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: April 30, 2019, 01:08:06 pm »

I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.

They obviously could, but there is no guarantee they will.  EVERYWHERE has a ceiling.  We thought Republicans reached it before Trump with rural Whites, and we were wrong.  That doesn't automatically mean that predictions of >60% Trump counties becoming 80% Trump counties are going to turn out to be true, either.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #34 on: May 05, 2019, 02:19:32 pm »

Man, this thread will never fail to make me laugh.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #35 on: May 11, 2019, 09:14:10 pm »

Man, this thread will never fail to make me laugh cry.
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morgieb
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« Reply #36 on: May 11, 2019, 09:29:00 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #37 on: May 13, 2019, 04:35:08 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #38 on: May 13, 2019, 04:37:42 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #39 on: May 13, 2019, 04:46:51 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #40 on: May 13, 2019, 07:59:39 pm »

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Who was saying that? Obama actually did pretty well with rural whites outside the South. Look at the 2008 county swing map if you don't believe me.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #41 on: May 13, 2019, 08:20:09 pm »

This thread should have been titled "Who do you want to win Elliott County, KY?"
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Thunder98
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« Reply #42 on: May 13, 2019, 08:36:09 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

This. There are a number of posters also convinced that there's gonna be hordes of O'Rourke'18/Trump and Abrams/Trump voters and a sufficient number of Kim Reynolds/PresiDem voters or DeWine/PresiDem voters to make this the case. Which is just absurd.

and some posters on here think 2020 will be like 2012 and fing 2004
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Elitists for Bloomberg
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« Reply #43 on: May 14, 2019, 06:27:10 pm »

This. There are a number of posters also convinced that there's gonna be a sufficient number of Cruz/Presidem and Kemp/Presidem voters and hordes of Hubbell/Trump voters or Cordray/Trump voters to make this the case. Which is just absurd.
FTFY
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #44 on: May 14, 2019, 06:56:11 pm »

This. There are a number of posters also convinced that there's gonna be a sufficient number of Cruz/Presidem and Kemp/Presidem voters and hordes of Hubbell/Trump voters or Cordray/Trump voters to make this the case. Which is just absurd.
FTFY
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #45 on: May 15, 2019, 04:01:09 am »

I think it is just crazy how it took until 2016 for the flip to finally happen
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Solid4096
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« Reply #46 on: May 26, 2019, 06:54:50 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #47 on: May 29, 2019, 11:45:44 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.

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538Electoral
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« Reply #48 on: May 30, 2019, 02:48:02 am »

This is funny to watch 3 years later.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #49 on: May 30, 2019, 10:20:49 am »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.
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