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  2016 U.S. Presidential Election (Moderators: TJ in Oregon, Virginiá)
  Who will win Elliott County, KY?
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Author Topic: Who will win Elliott County, KY?  (Read 5127 times)
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swamiG
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« Reply #50 on: May 30, 2019, 11:39:09 am »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.

Yeah, Atlas really needs to understand this
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Solid4096
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« Reply #51 on: May 30, 2019, 12:39:55 pm »

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.

I never said that a 50 point gap in the 2016 result meant less than a 12 point gap in the 2012 result. Of course the 50 point gap in the 2016 result means far more in this case.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #52 on: May 30, 2019, 09:22:44 pm »

Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.
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Ilhan Apologist
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« Reply #53 on: May 31, 2019, 10:36:47 pm »

Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Huh? That's been happening for quite some time...
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Solid4096
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« Reply #54 on: July 12, 2019, 09:50:41 am »

Something to note is that the 2012 to 2016 swing was a result of almost as many Nonvoter 2012 to Trump 2016 voters (428) as Obama 2012 to Trump 2016 voters (446).
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #55 on: July 12, 2019, 11:05:37 am »

Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Those formerly Democratic counties in swing states that are being lost are almost all rural and insignificant, and in most cases the Democrats can make up for this by urban/suburban areas, which are much more populous, swinging to the left.
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Grassr00ts
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« Reply #56 on: July 12, 2019, 01:31:52 pm »

Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Those formerly Democratic counties in swing states that are being lost are almost all rural and insignificant, and in most cases the Democrats can make up for this by urban/suburban areas, which are much more populous, swinging to the left.

That's no excuse.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #57 on: July 12, 2019, 02:25:27 pm »

Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Those formerly Democratic counties in swing states that are being lost are almost all rural and insignificant, and in most cases the Democrats can make up for this by urban/suburban areas, which are much more populous, swinging to the left.

That's no excuse.

That's as ridiculous as saying that Republicans have no excuse in losing DuPage County, IL; Orange County, CA; Fort Bend County, TX; or Cobb & Gwinnett Counties, GA.  Next time, Riley County, KS--which has literally never voted Democratic in a presidential election before--could easily flip.  Voting patterns shift.
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« Reply #58 on: September 14, 2019, 12:47:53 pm »

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General Mung Beans
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« Reply #59 on: September 18, 2019, 01:58:41 pm »


The Utah/Mormon country swings are misleading considering most of it went to McMullin, not a Democrat. Wish there was a separate list for GOP to Dem swing counties.
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Beef
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« Reply #60 on: September 18, 2019, 02:25:04 pm »

I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.

They obviously could, but there is no guarantee they will.  EVERYWHERE has a ceiling.  We thought Republicans reached it before Trump with rural Whites, and we were wrong.  That doesn't automatically mean that predictions of >60% Trump counties becoming 80% Trump counties are going to turn out to be true, either.

At some point we're talking about high school drama teachers flipping. There are liberals everywhere. No place is a political monoculture.
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Solid4096
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« Reply #61 on: September 19, 2019, 05:24:07 am »


The Utah/Mormon country swings are misleading considering most of it went to McMullin, not a Democrat. Wish there was a separate list for GOP to Dem swing counties.

Whats notable about the list is that it is a GOP to Dem swing list. The list does basically count Romney-Clinton swings for twice as much as it counts Romney-McMullin swings.
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