Who will win Elliott County, KY?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

I can't see your image.

Its basically a screenshot of the largest County Swing %ages on this page

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.

In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.

I never said that a 50 point gap in the 2016 result meant less than a 12 point gap in the 2012 result. Of course the 50 point gap in the 2016 result means far more in this case.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Something to note is that the 2012 to 2016 swing was a result of almost as many Nonvoter 2012 to Trump 2016 voters (428) as Obama 2012 to Trump 2016 voters (446).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The Utah/Mormon country swings are misleading considering most of it went to McMullin, not a Democrat. Wish there was a separate list for GOP to Dem swing counties.

Whats notable about the list is that it is a GOP to Dem swing list. The list does basically count Romney-Clinton swings for twice as much as it counts Romney-McMullin swings.