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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton and Trump close in IA/OH/MI  (Read 2210 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: July 17, 2016, 09:37:28 am »



https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/07/17/clinton-trump-neck-and-neck-key-battlegrounds/
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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2016, 09:39:23 am »

The Michigan poll is junk, Clinton has a wider lead there

Ohio finally looks a little encouraging

Iowa looks like a tough one for Team Blue because every poll is in the margin of error there so they all can't be wrong
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2016, 09:50:20 am »

Overall battlegrounds poll is terrible for Clinton. Only 41-40 up when including such states as WI and MI. Infact, she should be tied or ahead in every one of those battleground states except NC.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2016, 09:51:19 am »

Lol at Ohio being to the left of Michigan.

Michigan polling is almost always awful.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2016, 09:55:46 am »

Overall battlegrounds poll is terrible for Clinton. Only 41-40 up when including such states as WI and MI. Infact, she should be tied or ahead in every one of those battleground states except NC.

NBC has her up 8 in a group of 13 battleground states.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2016, 09:57:25 am »

The Michigan poll is junk, Clinton has a wider lead there

Ohio finally looks a little encouraging

Iowa looks like a tough one for Team Blue because every poll is in the margin of error there so they all can't be wrong

If I'm remembering right, Iowa polling in 2012 was also quite close. Obama still won it by 6.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2016, 10:00:13 am »

The Michigan poll is junk, Clinton has a wider lead there

Ohio finally looks a little encouraging

Iowa looks like a tough one for Team Blue because every poll is in the margin of error there so they all can't be wrong

If I'm remembering right, Iowa polling in 2012 was also quite close. Obama still won it by 6.

Iowa polling in 2014 was also quite close. Ernst still won it by 8.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2016, 10:00:21 am »

Overall battlegrounds poll is terrible for Clinton. Only 41-40 up when including such states as WI and MI. Infact, she should be tied or ahead in every one of those battleground states except NC.

NBC has her up 8 in a group of 13 battleground states.

You realize that this is part of a national poll of 1000 RV ?

So, not more than 100-200 people were polled for these 13 states ...
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2016, 10:00:50 am »

The Michigan poll is junk, Clinton has a wider lead there

Ohio finally looks a little encouraging

Iowa looks like a tough one for Team Blue because every poll is in the margin of error there so they all can't be wrong

If I'm remembering right, Iowa polling in 2012 was also quite close. Obama still won it by 6.

Iowa polling in 2014 was also quite close. Ernst still won it by 8.

Midterm vs Presidential.

Edit: Also, Yougov is terrible at polling Iowa. There last Iowa poll in 2014 had Braley up +1.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2016, 10:04:50 am by Fusionmunster »Logged
heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2016, 10:02:09 am »

Ohio looks good. Iowa being to the right of OH, FL, and NC seems about right in this election. Michigan polls are notoriously junk. CBS/YouGov thinks Michigan got 3% whiter than 2012, which seems unlikely, and that 4% will vote for "Someone else" when they included Johnson and Stein. Sounds like disgruntled Sanders supporters.
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Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2016, 10:08:00 am »

There are 3 recent polls now for MI, all showing only Clinton+3.

She probably leads by a bigger margin than that, but it's a troubling trend for her.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2016, 10:10:12 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2016, 10:12:00 am »

There are 3 recent polls now for MI, all showing only Clinton+3.

She probably leads by a bigger margin than that, but it's a troubling trend for her.

One of which is Gravis, the other from I assume Morning Consult. Neither of which is reputable. Yougov really isn't either. I'm really not sure if your concern trolling at this point.
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2016, 10:13:09 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

Yeah exactly ... Roll Eyes

Don't get delusional ... Hillary is not a saint with sky-high favourable ratings either (not even Obama won by those margins you are dreaming of and he was actually popular).
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2016, 10:17:04 am »

Ohio looks good. Iowa being to the right of OH, FL, and NC seems about right in this election. Michigan polls are notoriously junk. CBS/YouGov thinks Michigan got 3% whiter than 2012, which seems unlikely, and that 4% will vote for "Someone else" when they included Johnson and Stein. Sounds like disgruntled Sanders supporters.

They didn't include Johnson or Stein. They had to select someone else first before being offered Johnson or Stein.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2016, 10:17:44 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

Yeah exactly ... Roll Eyes

Don't get delusional ... Hillary is not a saint with sky-high favourable ratings either (not even Obama won by those margins you are dreaming of and he was actually popular).

After your "blaxicans" silliness, you should not be calling any names. Stop yourself, right now. If Trump can barely crack 40%, then there is every indication that he's headed for huge double digit losses based on college educated whites swinging heavily to Clinton. Unlike your country, we aren't all that keen on white supremacists and don't vote for them. Thank you.
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2016, 10:18:12 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

I mean, she is outspending him 50-1 in swing states. She "should" be ahead by 20 points, lol.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2016, 10:18:57 am »

New Poll: Iowa President by YouGov on 2016-07-15

Summary: D: 39%, R: 40%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2016, 10:20:24 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by YouGov on 2016-07-15

Summary: D: 44%, R: 40%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #19 on: July 17, 2016, 10:20:28 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

LOL, that would be a 450+ EV landslide for Hillary. Even I'm not that optimistic. Ohio will be close like Ohio always is. Too many rural Republicans for that kind of result. 90% of the Ohio electorate is inelastic and completely locked into their party preference

FYI, I think Hillary has at least an 80% chance to sweep all the Obama 2012 swing states
« Last Edit: July 17, 2016, 10:22:22 am by dspNY »Logged
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #20 on: July 17, 2016, 10:21:02 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

I mean, she is outspending him 50-1 in swing states. She "should" be ahead by 20 points, lol.

She's ahead by decent margins when you look at reputable pollsters. If you wanna put your hope in Yougov though, feel free.
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« Reply #21 on: July 17, 2016, 10:21:45 am »

Odd poll. MI definitely won't be to the right of OH, and I'd be surprised if IA was as well (especially by five points.)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #22 on: July 17, 2016, 10:21:47 am »

New Poll: Michigan President by YouGov on 2016-07-15

Summary: D: 42%, R: 39%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #23 on: July 17, 2016, 10:23:14 am »

Isn't YouGov a fully online, Internet panel poll?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #24 on: July 17, 2016, 10:35:49 am »

Tump can only manage to get 38-42% of the vote in most polling. He's headed for double digit loses in all these states. Clinton probably gets 56-58% in Ohio if these trends keep up.

LOL, that would be a 450+ EV landslide for Hillary. Even I'm not that optimistic. Ohio will be close like Ohio always is. Too many rural Republicans for that kind of result. 90% of the Ohio electorate is inelastic and completely locked into their party preference

FYI, I think Hillary has at least an 80% chance to sweep all the Obama 2012 swing states

At best for Trump, Ohio with be 54-43. That is assuming that he ties with college educated whites. He's simply not breaking out of the low 40s at this point, so I don't think Ohio will be that close.
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